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Mobility Interrupted

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How do sequences of upward and downward socioeconomic mobility influence political views among those who have “risen” or “fallen” during periods of leftist governance? Benjamin Junge discusses the relationship between retrospective assessments of prior socioeconomic mobility and anti-PT sentiment.

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 20, 2023

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This video video discusses research on the relationship between socioeconomic mobility and political sentiment in Brazil, focusing on the anti-Workers' Party (PT) sentiment that emerged following the economic and political crisis beginning around 2013. The study, conducted between 2016 and 2018 by researchers from Portland State University and Rutgers University, involved anthropological methods, including surveys of 1,200 households across Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Recife.

The research aimed to understand how socioeconomic mobility impacts political attitudes, especially anti-leftist sentiment. It found that individuals who experienced "stalled mobility," meaning they had previously improved their economic status but then faced economic decline, were significantly more likely to express anti-PT sentiment. This video video sentiment was less pronounced among those whose circumstances either continuously improved or got worse.

The concept termed the "dashed hopes hypothesis" suggests that individuals who were encouraged to dream of a better life through policies of the PT, and then faced setbacks, developed resentment towards the party. This video video phenomenon contributed to the election of right-wing politician Jair Bolsonaro in 2018, highlighting a polarizing political landscape in Brazil.

The findings reflect broader conditions and historical contexts in Brazil, addressing how political views have been shaped by past experiences with socioeconomic changes, and suggesting that similar dynamics may exist in other Latin American countries. The study emphasizes the lasting impact of perceived mobility on political attitudes, revealing the complexities behind nostalgia for past political regimes, including authoritarian periods.

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Anti Chimo, is a reference to, the PT

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or the Workers' Party, in Portuguese, this is par.

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So pt, and this is the party that controlled,

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the Brazilian federal government,

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during the first decade of the 21st century,

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and a couple of years into the second decade,

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but was subsequently blamed by many Brazilians for,

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the crisis, the economic

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and political crisis that ensued beginning in around 2013.

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So we use this concept of anti patal

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or anti-left sentiment as one, optics one,

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one factor for explaining, the tumultuous outcome

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of the 2018 presidential election.

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The objectives of our research, were

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to understand the effects of socioec,

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socioeconomic mobility on, political sentiment,

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and particularly on anti-left or anti PT sentiment.

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Um, now, this was in the context of 2016,

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which was a moment of deep economic political crisis

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precarity, for Brazilians following a decade

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of economic growth and optimism.

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So in part, we're trying to understand what, what,

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what are the effects of economic precarity on political

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attitudes and political views

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that later on could have influenced the 2018

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presidential elections.

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From 2016 to 2018,

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we conducted a three year anthropological investigation.

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When I say we, I'm speaking of my colleagues,

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Charles Klein at Portland State University

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and Sean Mitchell at Rutgers University.

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And the three of us, conducted a three year

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investigation of the political views of a group,

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we refer to as Brazil's once rising poor.

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So these are poor

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and working class Brazilian people, families, communities

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who experienced some degree of upward mobility

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during the first decade of the 21st century.

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But by the time we did our study had many

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of these groups had,

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these families had fallen into economic precarity.

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So we were interested in what does precarity,

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what are its effects on political views and attitudes.

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So as part of this study, in each of these,

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in three cities, Rio de Janero, Sao Paulo,

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and the Northeastern city of Recife,

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we conducted a range of anthropological,

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research techniques, interviews, observations,

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and surveys.

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And for this study that I'm reporting on here, on

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mobility and anti anti smo, we conducted a survey

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with 1200 households split between the three cities,

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so about 400 in each city, in 2016.

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And we asked them a range of questions.

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Uh, these are, poor

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and working class households in each of the three cities.

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We asked a range of questions, including questions about

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how well had their family done in

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during the first decade of the century.

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And the second had things gotten better,

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gotten worse, stayed the same.

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And we also asked questions, of

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what do they think about the PT and the workers' party?

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We asked a range of questions that allowed us

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to construct an index of anti PT sentiment.

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So essentially our anti PT index.

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Our anti index, was the,

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constructed based on, responses to,

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nine or 10 questions.

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Each one of them asked opinions, you know, usually with

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what we refer to as a Likert scale question.

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So it's, it gives 'em a statement,

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the respondent a statement,

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and we say, how strongly do you agree

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with this statement or disagree with it?

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Um, and so these were statements, about, how much,

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how at fault was the PT for the,

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the economic precarity

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and the economic crisis,

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that our respondents were, were living through.

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Um,

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and questions about the PTs signature poverty reduction,

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initiatives, in the earlier decade that many

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of our respondents had benefited from directly.

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And we wanted to ask them, what did you think of these?

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Did you agree with 'em? Did you support with 'em?

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Uh, did you support them? Uh,

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we also asked our respondents about,

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some anti PT social movements

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and if they were involved with those,

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and if they supported those.

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And, then at the end of the day, we added all

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of their responses, and created a nine point, index.

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So if, if the higher the index, the more anti PT sentiment,

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and the less, the lower the value of the index,

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the lower, anti PT sentiment.

04:57.465 --> 05:01.645
So the key finding of our research, is that people who

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remembered their economic condition as having gotten better,

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having improved during the first decade

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of the 2020 first century, and then getting worse

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or no change during the subsequent decade, this is the,

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the sequence we referred to as stalled mobility.

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A stalled mobility sequence were on average significantly

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more inclined to anti leftist or anti-left

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or anti PT sentiment compared to respondents

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with other mobility patterns.

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In fact, families

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and households whose, whose lives had,

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experienced any other, mobility pattern, for example,

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continuing to get better

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or always getting worse, they were not associated

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with anti-left sentiment.

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It was only the stalled mobility pat pattern that,

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was consistently associated with anti-left, sentiment.

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I've already described the immediate backdrop,

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to our, our survey.

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Uh, how do poor and EEC

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and working class people respond to economic crisis

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and how does it influence their political views?

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But the broader context was the 2018 elections,

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presidential elections

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that saw really the extraordinary rise

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and eventual triumph of, of hard right,

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politician Jair Bolsonaro 2018,

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he was the president from 2018,

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for the next four years.

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Now, scholars of Brazilian political views,

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social movements,

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and attitudes like myself, we're still trying

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to explain the conditions of the 2018 election.

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Uh, what were the conditions, factors that mattered?

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Uh, did it have to do with the, the rise

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of the e evangelical church?

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Did it have to do with social media?

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Did it have to do with some vi ways

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of remembering Brazil's dictatorship from the

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sixties, seventies, and eighties?

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And these debates will continue for some time,

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but one factor we all agree was significant.

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Um, was anti t sentiment,

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anti-left sentiment.

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So simply to, to identify empirically

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and very consistently a correlation,

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between anti-left sentiment

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and mobility pattern, is a very novel,

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a novel insight of our study

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and to, to our knowledge, no one else has ever demonstrated,

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that association.

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Now, what is driving anti PT sentiment?

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Um, what is it driving this,

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this particular kind of sentiment?

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I think it's that, in, in the,

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in pre-existing studies in Brazil

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and in Latin America, we have tended to,

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to rely on income, employment status, these kind

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of classic, socioeconomic variables

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to explain political attitudes.

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And they tell us something,

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but they don't reflect change over time.

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Uh, and they don't, they don't, reflect,

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how when your hopes are, awakened.

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And the pt, the workers' party during the first decade

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of the 20, 21st century dared poor

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and working class Brazilians to dream,

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and to some extent, they

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provided the means through government initiatives

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for these dreams to begin to be realized through

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what we would call social welfare programs.

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Um, but then with the subsequent crisis, the,

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the rug was pulled out from underneath all of this.

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And I think what we're, uncovering in our research is

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that when you've been dared to dream,

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and then those dreams, become precarious,

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you have a particular kind

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Of, of let's say resentment or frustration,

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or some have even called it hate against the incumbent,

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in this case, leftist party that dared you

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to dream in the, in the first place.

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We've sometimes referred to our hypothesis

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as the dashed hopes hypothesis that

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dashed hopes when your life, your live,

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your status has gotten better

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and then gets worse, has its own particular kind

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of force in shaping, anti-democratic,

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political views.

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What are the long-term effects potentially

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beyond the 2018 elections of these,

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stalled mobility sequences, these stalled mobility patterns

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and their impact, their possible impact on political views?

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Well, I would say

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that in 2018 when Shaya Bolsonaro was elected, Brazil was

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becoming increasingly divided in terms of political views.

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Um, but it was a much,

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messier more complicated, scenario

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that ultimately led to Bolsonaro election.

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But if we fast forward, to 2020,

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the 2021 elections,

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where Bolsonaro very narrowly lost,

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and Luis Ignacio, Lula da Silva,

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or Lula, the PT candidate who had run the government

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during the first decade of, the 21st century, won

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and is the current president.

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Um, if we advance to that, then we see

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Brazil is fully polarized, very polarized,

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much more than it had been at the level of families

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and ordinary people, than it had been in 2018.

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And I think that,

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this stalled mobility from the earlier period is still

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shaping people's political attitudes, especially since

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the, the fellow who is the president now is the fellow

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who was the president 20 years ago,

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when anyone who's at least 20 or 25 years old

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and has living memory of how things got better

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and then got worse, in their own family situation.

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So it's complicated,

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but I think the influence of mobility,

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recollected remembered mobility patterns is still shaping

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people's political attitudes.

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Though the political world has, has changed

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and transformed a fair amount since 2018, to our knowledge,

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this is the first study that is,

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using empirical survey data

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with a large sample in multiple Brazilian cities,

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demonstrated, the impact of,

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recollected socioeconomic mobility patterns on political

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attitudes and views.

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Um, so it's an important study, that can be,

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the, the results of which can be used in other Latin

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American set settings

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where similar political processes have taken place.

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Brazil is not the only, the only,

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Latin American country,

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that experienced a leftist regime in the early 21st century.

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The so-called Pink Tide, it was called back in the day,

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only to be followed by a resurgence of,

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conservative politics.

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So trying, trying to explain how ordinary people made sense

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of those shifts and possibly supported them,

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even though their lives had gotten better under a leftist,

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government, is interesting

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and important work to be done across, the region.

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I would also say, you know, we're, we're really struggling,

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on a particular question

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that concerns historical memory.

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Brazil, shares a dictatorial past

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with many other Latin American countries,

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and, it,

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it had a dictatorship in the sixties, seventies and eighties.

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And it is peculiar, it's challenging for many of us

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who study Brazil to make sense of people who seem to be

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waxing nostalgic for the, the good old days of, when,

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when, when there was more order in society,

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and less crime on the streets.

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And yet ordinary citizens didn't have civil rights,

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didn't have freedom of ex the right

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to expression, the right to assembly.

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Um, so part of, part of understanding,

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this particular variety of nostalgia that's, that seems

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to be coming back across Latin America,

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I think our study, helps provide insight into it

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because, and it reminds us that when you've,

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when your hopes have been awakened

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and you start to really change your life

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and see some results with support from the government,

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it's very powerful

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and it's just as powerful

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when subsequently your hopes are extinguished,

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because of economic precarity.

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And it might, incline you, to,

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have a positive nostalgia towards an earlier

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anti-democratic period.

00:00 - Anti Chimo, is a reference to, the PT or the Workers' Party, in Portuguese, this is par. So pt, and this is the party that controlled, the Brazilian federal government, during the first decade of the 21st century, and a couple of years into the second decade,

00:20 - but was subsequently blamed by many Brazilians for, the crisis, the economic and political crisis that ensued beginning in around 2013. So we use this concept of anti patal or anti-left sentiment as one, optics one, one factor for explaining, the tumultuous outcome of the 2018 presidential election. The objectives of our research, were to understand the effects of socioec, socioeconomic mobility on, political sentiment,

00:58 - and particularly on anti-left or anti PT sentiment. now, this was in the context of 2016, which was a moment of deep economic political crisis precarity, for Brazilians following a decade of economic growth and optimism. So in part, we're trying to understand what, what, what are the effects of economic precarity on political attitudes and political views that later on could have influenced the 2018 presidential elections.

01:32 - From 2016 to 2018, we conducted a three year anthropological investigation. When I say we, I'm speaking of my colleagues, Charles Klein at Portland State University and Sean Mitchell at Rutgers University. And the three of us, conducted a three year investigation of the political views of a group, we refer to as Brazil's once rising poor. So these are poor and working class Brazilian people, families, communities

02:04 - who experienced some degree of upward mobility during the first decade of the 21st century. But by the time we did our study had many of these groups had, these families had fallen into economic precarity. So we were interested in what does precarity, what are its effects on political views and attitudes. So as part of this study, in each of these, in three cities, Rio de Janero, Sao Paulo, and the Northeastern city of Recife,

02:34 - we conducted a range of anthropological, research techniques, interviews, observations, and surveys. And for this study that I'm reporting on here, on mobility and anti anti smo, we conducted a survey with 1200 households split between the three cities, so about 400 in each city, in 2016. And we asked them a range of questions. these are, poor and working class households in each of the three cities.

03:06 - We asked a range of questions, including questions about how well had their family done in during the first decade of the century. And the second had things gotten better, gotten worse, stayed the same. And we also asked questions, of what do they think about the PT and the workers' party? We asked a range of questions that allowed us to construct an index of anti PT sentiment. So essentially our anti PT index.

03:34 - Our anti index, was the, constructed based on, responses to, nine or 10 questions. Each one of them asked opinions, you know, usually with what we refer to as a Likert scale question. So it's, it gives 'em a statement, the respondent a statement, and we say, how strongly do you agree with this statement or disagree with it? and so these were statements, about, how much,

04:01 - how at fault was the PT for the, the economic precarity and the economic crisis, that our respondents were, were living through. and questions about the PTs signature poverty reduction, initiatives, in the earlier decade that many of our respondents had benefited from directly. And we wanted to ask them, what did you think of these? Did you agree with 'em? Did you support with 'em?

04:28 - did you support them? we also asked our respondents about, some anti PT social movements and if they were involved with those, and if they supported those. And, then at the end of the day, we added all of their responses, and created a nine point, index. So if, if the higher the index, the more anti PT sentiment, and the less, the lower the value of the index, the lower, anti PT sentiment.

04:57 - So the key finding of our research, is that people who remembered their economic condition as having gotten better, having improved during the first decade of the 2020 first century, and then getting worse or no change during the subsequent decade, this is the, the sequence we referred to as stalled mobility. A stalled mobility sequence were on average significantly more inclined to anti leftist or anti-left or anti PT sentiment compared to respondents with other mobility patterns.

05:33 - In fact, families and households whose, whose lives had, experienced any other, mobility pattern, for example, continuing to get better or always getting worse, they were not associated with anti-left sentiment. It was only the stalled mobility pat pattern that, was consistently associated with anti-left, sentiment. I've already described the immediate backdrop, to our, our survey.

06:03 - how do poor and EEC and working class people respond to economic crisis and how does it influence their political views? But the broader context was the 2018 elections, presidential elections that saw really the extraordinary rise and eventual triumph of, of hard right, politician Jair Bolsonaro 2018, he was the president from 2018, for the next four years.

06:31 - Now, scholars of Brazilian political views, social movements, and attitudes like myself, we're still trying to explain the conditions of the 2018 election. what were the conditions, factors that mattered? did it have to do with the, the rise of the e evangelical church? Did it have to do with social media? Did it have to do with some vi ways of remembering Brazil's dictatorship from the

06:59 - sixties, seventies, and eighties? And these debates will continue for some time, but one factor we all agree was significant. was anti t sentiment, anti-left sentiment. So simply to, to identify empirically and very consistently a correlation, between anti-left sentiment and mobility pattern, is a very novel, a novel insight of our study

07:29 - and to, to our knowledge, no one else has ever demonstrated, that association. Now, what is driving anti PT sentiment? what is it driving this, this particular kind of sentiment? I think it's that, in, in the, in pre-existing studies in Brazil and in Latin America, we have tended to, to rely on income, employment status, these kind of classic, socioeconomic variables

08:01 - to explain political attitudes. And they tell us something, but they don't reflect change over time. and they don't, they don't, reflect, how when your hopes are, awakened. And the pt, the workers' party during the first decade of the 20, 21st century dared poor and working class Brazilians to dream, and to some extent, they provided the means through government initiatives

08:30 - for these dreams to begin to be realized through what we would call social welfare programs. but then with the subsequent crisis, the, the rug was pulled out from underneath all of this. And I think what we're, uncovering in our research is that when you've been dared to dream, and then those dreams, become precarious, you have a particular kind Of, of let's say resentment or frustration, or some have even called it hate against the incumbent,

09:01 - in this case, leftist party that dared you to dream in the, in the first place. We've sometimes referred to our hypothesis as the dashed hopes hypothesis that dashed hopes when your life, your live, your status has gotten better and then gets worse, has its own particular kind of force in shaping, anti-democratic, political views. What are the long-term effects potentially

09:31 - beyond the 2018 elections of these, stalled mobility sequences, these stalled mobility patterns and their impact, their possible impact on political views? Well, I would say that in 2018 when Shaya Bolsonaro was elected, Brazil was becoming increasingly divided in terms of political views. but it was a much, messier more complicated, scenario that ultimately led to Bolsonaro election. But if we fast forward, to 2020,

10:08 - the 2021 elections, where Bolsonaro very narrowly lost, and Luis Ignacio, Lula da Silva, or Lula, the PT candidate who had run the government during the first decade of, the 21st century, won and is the current president. if we advance to that, then we see Brazil is fully polarized, very polarized, much more than it had been at the level of families and ordinary people, than it had been in 2018.

10:38 - And I think that, this stalled mobility from the earlier period is still shaping people's political attitudes, especially since the, the fellow who is the president now is the fellow who was the president 20 years ago, when anyone who's at least 20 or 25 years old and has living memory of how things got better and then got worse, in their own family situation. So it's complicated, but I think the influence of mobility,

11:10 - recollected remembered mobility patterns is still shaping people's political attitudes. Though the political world has, has changed and transformed a fair amount since 2018, to our knowledge, this is the first study that is, using empirical survey data with a large sample in multiple Brazilian cities, demonstrated, the impact of, recollected socioeconomic mobility patterns on political attitudes and views.

11:41 - so it's an important study, that can be, the, the results of which can be used in other Latin American set settings where similar political processes have taken place. Brazil is not the only, the only, Latin American country, that experienced a leftist regime in the early 21st century. The so-called Pink Tide, it was called back in the day, only to be followed by a resurgence of, conservative politics.

12:12 - So trying, trying to explain how ordinary people made sense of those shifts and possibly supported them, even though their lives had gotten better under a leftist, government, is interesting and important work to be done across, the region. I would also say, you know, we're, we're really struggling, on a particular question that concerns historical memory. Brazil, shares a dictatorial past with many other Latin American countries,

12:44 - and, it, it had a dictatorship in the sixties, seventies and eighties. And it is peculiar, it's challenging for many of us who study Brazil to make sense of people who seem to be waxing nostalgic for the, the good old days of, when, when, when there was more order in society, and less crime on the streets. And yet ordinary citizens didn't have civil rights, didn't have freedom of ex the right to expression, the right to assembly.

13:12 - so part of, part of understanding, this particular variety of nostalgia that's, that seems to be coming back across Latin America, I think our study, helps provide insight into it because, and it reminds us that when you've, when your hopes have been awakened and you start to really change your life and see some results with support from the government, it's very powerful and it's just as powerful

13:43 - when subsequently your hopes are extinguished, because of economic precarity. And it might, incline you, to, have a positive nostalgia towards an earlier anti-democratic period.

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