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Parties and Elections: An End to Canadian Exceptionalism?

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James Bickerton provides an overview of the Canadian party system, speaks to the long-term factors that have combined in the past to produce the unique character of the party system, and whether a “Canadian exceptionalism” will persist.

Image courtesy of interviewee. April 3, 2024

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This video video discusses the evolution of regionalism and party systems in Canadian politics. It outlines how regionalism influences the political landscape and the dominant role of the Liberal Party throughout various party systems.

1. **Exceptionalism**: Canada’s political landscape is deemed exceptional compared to similar countries, primarily due to its centrist Liberal Party and lack of class-based voting.

2. **Party Systems**: This video video identifies four distinct party systems in Canada’s history:
- The **first party system** (1867-1921) featured two national parties, alternating in power, until disrupted by changes in party dynamics.
- The **second party system** (post-1921) arose after World War I, with the emergence of new regional and populist parties and the Liberal Party maintaining dominance.
- The **third party system** (1961-1984) saw the rise of the New Democratic Party (NDP), alongside Liberals and Conservatives, with a focus on urban and left-leaning policies under Pierre Trudeau.
- The **fourth party system** emerged in the 1980s, characterized by ideological polarization, with shifts in power dynamics leading to the Conservative Party replacing the Progressive Conservatives after Brian Mulroney’s leadership.

3. **Current Trends**: This video video suggests that while the Liberals have historically dominated, recent elections (2015 onwards) led to minority governments and increased competition from conservatively polarized parties. It posits that Canada may be moving away from its exceptionalism towards a more ideologically divided party system, mirroring left-right polarization, while still facing the influences of cultural politics, particularly from Quebec.

In summary, the text details Canada’s unique political trajectory, shaped by regionalism and evolving party systems, exploring the potential shifts towards a more ideologically polarized landscape.

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X-TIMESTAMP-MAP:LOCAL=00:00:00.000,MPEGTS=900000

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Throughout my career, I've been interested particularly in

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the question of, regionalism in Canada,

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which is a prominent feature of our politics,

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and especially how it affected the party system.

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When you look at the literature on party politics in Canada,

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it, it does quite strongly make the case

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that Canada is somewhat exceptional compared

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to similar countries using similar political systems.

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Um, and that exceptionalism is, partially rooted in

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regionalism, but mostly related to the fact that

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our party politics has been dominated by a centrist party,

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the liberal party of Canada.

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Uh, we haven't had the kind of class-based voting

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that is common in a lot of other countries like ours.

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And, as a result of that, we have had,

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like I said, a dominant liberal party,

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but also, very successful region based

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insurgent parties, protest parties that have been a feature

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of the system since, 1921, really.

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Um, so that results in a lot

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of minority governments, in Canada.

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So there's a, there's a series of things all interrelated,

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that make Canada somewhat, exceptional compared to,

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similar countries.

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Canada basically has had a number of realigning elections.

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So on a, on a more

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or less regular basis,

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there's been a big change in the party system.

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So much so that it kind of introduces a new party system.

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So we can think about Canadian party politics,

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and this is common in the literature

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as a sequence of party systems.

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Each one different from the one before it.

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And we're in the fourth one now.

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So the first party system was really

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from Confederation in 1867 up until the election of 1921,

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the first post-war election.

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And that's the period of normal party politics in Canada.

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That is to say, two national parties alternating in power,

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more or less, making similar appeals to different regions,

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classes and language groups.

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So you get this classic two party system.

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But even within that first party system,

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there was a realigning election, in 1896.

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Before that, the conservatives were dominant under the

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leadership of really the country's founders.

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So John A. McDonald. And then

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after 1896 party politics became dominated

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by the liberals

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and they were under the leadership of Sir Wilford Laurier.

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But the key to their newfound dominance was

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they began to make a special appeal to French Canada.

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Of course, French Canada constituted one third of all

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of Canadian population,

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and the liberals got a stranglehold on French Canadian

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voters based on cultural politics, really about

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language, religion, identity. And they

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That strong position in Quebec to remain the,

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the dominant party really throughout the 20th century.

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So that was the first party system.

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Uh, the second party system comes along

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'cause the first party system's totally

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disrupted by World War I.

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Uh, the conservatives form a a sort

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of a common front government,

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and they take power throughout the war.

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Uh, the liberals are kind of reduced

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to a mostly French Canadian rump during the war years.

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British Canadians are loyal to Britain,

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and so they're supportive of the war effort.

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French Canada was opposed to it.

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And so that really creates a, a situation in Canada,

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which is not civil war,

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but it's one of the closest times we've

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come to Civil War in Canada.

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At the end of the war, the coalition breaks up.

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Conservatives have lost a lot of legitimacy as a result

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of their conduct of the war.

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And 1921 introduces, new

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Western populous parties.

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They, Western Canada produces these

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class-based populous parties.

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There's a lot of social conflict in the post-war era.

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Uh, and we're gonna have a new party system, we'll,

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we'll never have a two party system again after 1921.

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It's gonna be the liberals that are gonna be dominant.

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It's gonna be mainly the conservatives in opposition,

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but also a series

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of populist parties based in Western Canada, that are,

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also a feature of the party system.

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So, you know, we have, the progressives,

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which is farmer based party.

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We have the CCF, which is on a classic socialist party.

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We have the social credit, which is this right wing populist

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party, and they're all parties in the second party system.

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So the second party system much more fragmented.

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The liberals are dominant mostly under the leadership

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of William Blind McKenzie King, who is this.

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He was in power for 22 years.

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He was a master at brokerage politics, sort

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of accommodating linguistic and class

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and regional divisions within Canada.

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Uh, class-based voting never really takes hold in Canada

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throughout this whole period.

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And the liberals are sort of the natural governing party

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of Canada as a result of their ability

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to use cultural politics

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and regional politics to their advantage.

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So centrism kind of reigned supreme, in Canada

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during that whole period.

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So that's the first two party systems.

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Uh, and liberals are really dominant throughout the second

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party system, but that's gonna come to an end.

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Uh, as I said, the liberals are in power

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pretty well constantly.

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From 1921 up until 1957, very brief interlude at the,

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in the midst of the depression years, by nine,

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by the late 1950s.

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They're, they're very old party.

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I mean, the party leadership starts to look like one

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of those old Soviet borough, you know, pictures.

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You're all elderly men.

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Um, Canadians are becoming increasingly uneasy,

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both with the, the dominance of sort of political

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and bureaucratic elite that's been in power for a long time.

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But also, there's a upwelling

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of Canadian nationalism that's starting.

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And in the post-war years, Canada is

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strongly moving into the US orbit economically becoming

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basically just an extension of the American economy.

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And so there starts

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to be a nationalist backlash against the direction

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that the liberals are taking the country at that time.

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And this results in another realigning election,

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and that's in 1958 when the conservatives come to power,

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under a rather unorthodox leader, who was kind

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of a western populist.

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John Diefenbaker. His name was, who's also,

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an old style Canadian nationalist.

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I say old style because he believed in sort of one country,

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nationalism, you know, one nation, one country.

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So it wasn't really popular in Quebec,

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but it was very popular with most of English Canada.

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And it's, it's, changes the whole realignment

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of the, party system.

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So from 19 50, 58 onwards,

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the conservatives really become the dominant party in

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Western Canada and the dominant party really in rural

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English speaking Canada.

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And ever since then, that's been true.

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So the conservatives have a very solid

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voter base from 1958 onwards, thanks to Deen Bakker.

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Really, the liberals during their period out

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of power kinda reorient themselves.

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I mean, Canada is becoming a more affluent,

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middle class urban society in those post-war years.

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You know, Lahr glory, the, those 30 years

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of economic prosperity everyone experienced.

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Uh, and that causes the liberals to rethink their strategy

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and their profile with voters.

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And they become more left-leaning.

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They become kind of a moderate social democratic party.

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They reinvigorate, the party in terms of their,

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their candidates and so on.

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And they become much more urban party,

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much more focused on urban voters

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because the cities are really growing in Canada.

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Big cities are becoming more dominant

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in terms of the voter base.

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And so now we have a new party system.

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There's one other party though that's important

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to this third party system,

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and that's a social democratic party on the left

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of the liberals called the New Democratic Party.

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They're formed in 1961.

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They're basically an offshoot of the old CCF,

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which was a socialist party of the old style

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in the thirties and forties.

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And they moderate and they form an alliance

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with organized labor, and they become a classic kind

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of social democratic labor type party competing

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for votes on the left with the liberals,

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mostly in urban Canada.

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And so we had these three parties that are competing

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in the third party system, liberals, conservatives, and NDP,

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but the liberals are once again dominant,

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and they're back in power in 63,

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and they stay in power right up until 1984.

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So once again, you know, more than two decades, decades

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of liberal dominance, mostly under the leadership

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of pure Elliot Trudeau,

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who is a very important prime minister in Canadian history.

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He, he really,

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gives the liberals a new purchase on the support of

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French Canadian voters

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and, increasing number of minority ethnic voters

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because the very high levels of immigration into Canada.

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And so the liberals become a priority once again

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of French Canada, but also of,

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visible minorities in Canada, especially in the cities.

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And Trudeau does this by crafting kind of a national unity,

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national identity strategy in which,

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he promotes Canada as a multicultural country.

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He passed a multiculturalism, policy,

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as an officially bilingual Canada.

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So he kind of brings,

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French Canada back into the liberal fold with this,

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linguistic policy

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and with his promise

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to bring in a new constitution based on a charter of rights

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and freedoms, whereby all Canadians will be equal

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as individuals, with a, with the idea that the

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provinces will also be all equal.

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He kind of resists the idea of Quebec nationalism.

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In fact, he came to Ottawa in 1965, really

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to combat the rise of separatism in Quebec.

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Uh, Trudeau is a, he is a quebecer,

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but he is opposed to Quebec nationalism

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and to the idea of separatism.

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So he becomes a real champion in English Canada

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because he's the main sort of obstacle to Quebec separatism.

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But at the same time, he appeals to French Canada

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with his linguistic policies

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and his, his idea that Canada should be, you know, two equal

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languages, French and English.

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So that's really, pat with the pattern

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of the third party system.

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So Canada, as I mentioned at the outset,

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really we've had four party systems.

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So we're in the fourth party system now.

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So that means that that third party system dominated

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by the liberals, again with Pierre Elliot Trudeau

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as a key figure, that that comes to an end.

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How did that happen? Um, Brian Mulrooney,

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who was Prime Minister of Canada,

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a progressive conservative prime minister of Canada

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from 1984 to 1993,

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he managed to, again,

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the liberals were getting along in the tooth

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rather tired as a government.

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There was an economic recession in the early eighties.

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Trudeau retired in 1984, and a new liberal leader came in.

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All of this created an opportunity for the conservatives

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who were called the progressive Conservatives

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from the middle of the Second World War onward.

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And they elected a new leader who was a quebecer, a fluent,

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French speaker, Brian Mulrooney.

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Uh, and he had a strategy

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to bring Quebec into the conservative camp.

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He promised that he would, reform the Constitution

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that was passed in 1982 in order

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to give Quebec special status within the Constitution

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as a province, unlike the others.

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And Quebec nationalists who really resented Trudeaus,

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anti nationalism, they kind of flopped to Maro.

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And so, even the separatist party in Quebec,

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recommended that their supporters vote

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for Maroone in the 1984 election.

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And he had promised them to bring them into the Constitution

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with honor and enthusiasm, as he said.

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And so the conservatives won this massive majority in 1984,

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and it looked like Mulroney had pulled it off

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that he had realigned Canadian politics yet again.

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But it turned out to be a, a failed realignment.

12:58.775 --> 13:02.795
He had an electoral coalition, which was very, difficult

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to sustain Francophones and Franco Phobes

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and the Franco Phobes were Western Canadians

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who did not like the idea of special treatment for Quebec.

13:12.095 --> 13:14.835
So cultural politics once again,

13:15.165 --> 13:18.075
rears its head in Canadian, politics here.

13:18.255 --> 13:20.155
And he was able to sustain

13:20.155 --> 13:24.075
that electoral coalition over two majorities in 1988.

13:24.175 --> 13:26.315
He did it because he had

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a constitutional agreement called the Mic Lake Accord,

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which was signed by all the provinces,

13:31.135 --> 13:33.275
and he had a free trade agreement with the United States,

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which was really popular in Western Canada.

13:35.935 --> 13:38.395
So he managed to keep that coalition together.

13:40.175 --> 13:42.955
But between 1988 and 1983, it all fell apart.

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Uh, the constitutional reform agreement fell apart.

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Uh, the free trade agreement came into effect,

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but Canada immediately ran into an economic recession,

13:54.055 --> 13:56.305
with a lot of job losses to the United States,

13:57.045 --> 13:59.225
and big questions about whether

13:59.225 --> 14:00.825
or not free trade had been a big mistake.

14:01.045 --> 14:03.105
And in fact, Mahoney never won a majority

14:03.105 --> 14:04.425
support for free trade.

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He got about 43% in that election.

14:07.165 --> 14:08.505
So most Canadians actually voted

14:08.505 --> 14:09.665
against the free trade agreement.

14:09.975 --> 14:12.145
It's very popular now, but at the time it wasn't.

14:13.095 --> 14:15.515
And that set up a situation in 1993,

14:15.595 --> 14:19.865
a real electoral earthquake situation where,

14:20.005 --> 14:22.305
the conservative coalition Mulroney had put together

14:23.545 --> 14:25.785
fractures into three different blocks.

14:26.735 --> 14:31.355
Uh, the Quebec base of support was overtaken by

14:32.075 --> 14:35.115
a new, separatist party at the federal level.

14:35.135 --> 14:36.395
So there's kinda sister party

14:36.495 --> 14:38.515
to the separatist party at the provincial level,

14:38.535 --> 14:40.875
the party Quebec law, this was called the Block Quebec law,

14:41.615 --> 14:43.355
led by a very close confidant

14:43.355 --> 14:44.395
and friend of Maroone

14:44.395 --> 14:47.115
who abandoned the party when the Mech Lake

14:47.115 --> 14:48.355
Accord fell apart.

14:48.355 --> 14:50.395
He abandoned the party, started the block Quebec,

14:51.105 --> 14:52.845
and they won the majority of seats

14:53.235 --> 14:57.285
that the conservatives held in Quebec in the 1993 election.

14:57.345 --> 15:01.125
So now we have a separatist party at the federal

15:01.135 --> 15:02.525
level in Parliament.

15:02.525 --> 15:05.005
They actually formed the official opposition in 1993.

15:05.005 --> 15:07.925
They got 54 seats in the West.

15:08.775 --> 15:11.085
There was a real upsurge of Western

15:12.855 --> 15:15.885
neoliberal populism, which is very unhappy

15:16.275 --> 15:18.205
with the way in which Maroone

15:18.205 --> 15:20.725
and the Conservative party had catered to Quebec.

15:21.305 --> 15:23.445
And moreover, there were fiscal

15:23.585 --> 15:28.045
and economic, problems, that weren't being addressed

15:28.785 --> 15:30.485
by the government to the satisfaction

15:30.485 --> 15:31.845
of these Western populace.

15:32.265 --> 15:35.405
So they began a new party called the Reform Party,

15:36.065 --> 15:38.405
and they basically took over the western base

15:38.465 --> 15:40.525
of the Conservative Party so that, so

15:40.525 --> 15:42.845
that conservative party that John Deen Bay Grade created

15:43.775 --> 15:45.355
was destroyed in 1993,

15:45.825 --> 15:48.795
that the progressive conservative party has never recovered.

15:48.795 --> 15:50.195
In fact, they've disappeared now.

15:50.945 --> 15:53.635
They, eventually gave up the ghost

15:53.735 --> 15:57.275
and merged with this reform Western Reform party

15:57.935 --> 16:00.555
to create a new conservative party of Canada.

16:00.705 --> 16:02.075
That happened in 2003.

16:03.265 --> 16:07.605
Uh, but as long as though that, division

16:08.815 --> 16:11.945
between the progressive conservatives, the Reform Party,

16:12.085 --> 16:14.545
and the Block Quebecois, as long as that was the case,

16:15.285 --> 16:17.105
it opened the door for the liberals

16:17.105 --> 16:18.625
to once again become the dominant party.

16:19.045 --> 16:21.425
And so the liberals, the last brokerage party standing

16:21.425 --> 16:25.105
really, they were able to once again assume power

16:25.215 --> 16:28.985
between 1993 and 2004 under Jean.

16:30.045 --> 16:33.975
Uh, so that kind of extended that period

16:34.035 --> 16:36.855
of liberal dominance all the way up to 2004,

16:38.835 --> 16:41.015
the fourth party system, the party system we're in now,

16:41.015 --> 16:43.135
it's very different from the third party system.

16:43.305 --> 16:47.335
Third party system was dominated by brokerage politics, by

16:48.025 --> 16:50.255
again, by centrist politics, again,

16:50.255 --> 16:53.575
by liberal liberals were able to, dominate

16:53.575 --> 16:54.695
during most of that period.

16:54.845 --> 16:57.175
Maroone just kind of copied the liberals

16:57.555 --> 16:59.375
and displaced them for a short period of time.

17:00.555 --> 17:03.005
This new party system we're in now is much more

17:04.155 --> 17:05.685
ideologically polarized

17:06.125 --> 17:07.575
because the reform party,

17:07.575 --> 17:09.895
which took over the progressive conservative party

17:10.515 --> 17:11.575
is much more right wing,

17:11.685 --> 17:14.215
much more ideologically right wing than the

17:14.215 --> 17:15.575
old progressive conservative party.

17:16.615 --> 17:20.615
Um, the block Quebec law has continued

17:20.615 --> 17:23.095
to be a large factor in our politics

17:23.155 --> 17:26.245
and continues to win, a majority

17:26.345 --> 17:28.365
or close to a majority of the seats in Quebec

17:28.885 --> 17:30.005
election and election out.

17:30.675 --> 17:33.735
And so we have this party system now with the liberals,

17:33.735 --> 17:37.095
the NDP, this new conservative party

17:37.155 --> 17:38.215
and the Block Quebec law,

17:38.235 --> 17:40.655
and the sort of a small green party,

17:40.805 --> 17:43.415
that are all competing in this party system.

17:44.755 --> 17:46.895
But the big difference about this party system really

17:47.555 --> 17:50.855
is in terms of the, the voter basis.

17:52.315 --> 17:55.455
Um, and there was some difference of opinion

17:55.485 --> 17:58.855
that were expressed by voting behavior experts about whether

17:58.915 --> 18:00.615
we had really seen a dramatic change

18:00.675 --> 18:01.975
in Canadian voting behavior.

18:02.555 --> 18:05.495
One group of voting behaviorists said, no,

18:05.995 --> 18:08.775
we still have sort of weak partisan,

18:09.715 --> 18:11.575
partisanship in Canada.

18:12.435 --> 18:13.815
We, we have volatility

18:13.845 --> 18:15.615
because the electorate's willing to,

18:16.235 --> 18:18.655
to move quickly from one party to another.

18:18.655 --> 18:20.295
They're not ideologically committed,

18:20.675 --> 18:21.975
and that's still the kind

18:21.975 --> 18:23.815
of party politics we have in Canada.

18:24.755 --> 18:27.895
But then there was another group of beha voter behaviorists,

18:28.115 --> 18:30.895
behavior theorists who said, no,

18:30.895 --> 18:33.215
the evidence doesn't point that way anymore.

18:33.275 --> 18:34.935
The evidence instead points to

18:35.515 --> 18:39.455
an increasingly ideologically divided electorate

18:39.885 --> 18:41.575
with much more partisan sorting.

18:41.765 --> 18:46.455
This is where voters identify, with a particular party

18:46.475 --> 18:49.095
or group of parties based on ideological orientation.

18:49.595 --> 18:53.565
And that would suggest that Canadian exceptionalism may in

18:53.565 --> 18:57.805
fact be, if not,

18:57.945 --> 19:00.645
at an end, at least the possibility is

19:00.645 --> 19:03.645
that we're moving away from it towards something

19:03.645 --> 19:05.205
that looks much more like a,

19:05.605 --> 19:08.485
a left right ideologically polarized party system.

19:09.265 --> 19:13.805
Uh, and we're, we're not quite there at the moment.

19:14.715 --> 19:16.935
Um, the liberals are still in power.

19:17.125 --> 19:19.655
They, they came back to power in 2015

19:19.655 --> 19:23.655
after losing power in, 2004 to the conservatives.

19:23.655 --> 19:27.255
They came back to power in 2015 under Justin Trudeau,

19:27.275 --> 19:28.895
who is Pierre Elliot Trudeau's son.

19:29.795 --> 19:33.615
Uh, and that was a surprise

19:33.765 --> 19:35.655
because in the previous election,

19:35.655 --> 19:37.015
the liberals had actually finished third

19:37.895 --> 19:40.675
and instead the NDP was the official opposition.

19:41.195 --> 19:43.155
A left-wing party conservatives,

19:43.155 --> 19:45.795
and much more right wing party were the government.

19:45.975 --> 19:48.995
And it looked like in 2011, yeah, it's happened.

19:49.175 --> 19:51.595
We have now an ideologically polarized

19:51.735 --> 19:52.995
mainly two party system.

19:53.615 --> 19:55.795
And then in 2015, all

19:55.795 --> 19:57.875
of a sudden Justin Trudeau becomes

19:57.875 --> 19:58.915
the leader of the liberal party.

19:59.815 --> 20:04.355
Uh, the liberals move left onto NDP territory

20:05.215 --> 20:09.035
and between Trudeau's attraction as a new leader,

20:09.455 --> 20:11.955
and this left move to the left of the liberal party,

20:12.375 --> 20:15.355
the liberals were able to win the election of 2015.

20:15.795 --> 20:18.995
A majority in fact. But in 20 19, 20 21,

20:19.225 --> 20:22.795
that turned into two minority governments with a coalition

20:22.795 --> 20:23.835
between the liberals

20:23.835 --> 20:27.075
and the NDP, keeping the left at center parties in power.

20:27.865 --> 20:30.005
Um, but all of the data

20:30.265 --> 20:32.685
and all of the surveys that we have now suggest

20:33.075 --> 20:36.445
that the conservatives are poised

20:36.505 --> 20:39.725
to regain power in the next election, which is due in 2025

20:40.385 --> 20:42.805
as a much more right wing alternative,

20:42.875 --> 20:45.285
very solidly neoliberal in terms

20:45.285 --> 20:48.370
of their ideological orientation, much more so than the old

20:49.005 --> 20:50.045
progressive conservative party.

20:50.775 --> 20:54.795
And the NDP and the liberals are almost indistinguishable in

20:54.795 --> 20:56.795
terms of their party platforms.

20:57.335 --> 21:01.595
Uh, and as a result, I think we're on the verge really of,

21:01.815 --> 21:04.195
sort of a, a final realignment

21:04.775 --> 21:06.715
of the Canadian party system

21:07.135 --> 21:08.435
and maybe an end to Canadian

21:08.435 --> 21:10.035
exceptionalism, the fly in the ointment.

21:11.415 --> 21:12.815
Cultural politics could continue

21:13.165 --> 21:14.735
because we still have Quebec

21:15.735 --> 21:17.715
and we still have this separate disparity,

21:17.715 --> 21:20.435
the block Quebec law whose voters are basically voting

21:20.435 --> 21:22.035
for them because they're nationalists

21:22.895 --> 21:24.515
or they favor Quebec independence.

21:25.375 --> 21:28.715
And that could, could still,

21:28.855 --> 21:31.875
be a big factor preventing this nice sort of

21:32.515 --> 21:35.475
movement towards, you know, left, right,

21:36.025 --> 21:37.875
ideologically polarized politics.

21:37.875 --> 21:38.795
We'll, we'll see what happens.

00:00 - Throughout my career, I've been interested particularly in the question of, regionalism in Canada, which is a prominent feature of our politics, and especially how it affected the party system. When you look at the literature on party politics in Canada, it, it does quite strongly make the case

00:17 - that Canada is somewhat exceptional compared to similar countries using similar political systems. and that exceptionalism is, partially rooted in regionalism, but mostly related to the fact that our party politics has been dominated by a centrist party, the liberal party of Canada. we haven't had the kind of class-based voting that is common in a lot of other countries like ours. And, as a result of that, we have had, like I said, a dominant liberal party,

00:52 - but also, very successful region based insurgent parties, protest parties that have been a feature of the system since, 1921, really. so that results in a lot of minority governments, in Canada. So there's a, there's a series of things all interrelated, that make Canada somewhat, exceptional compared to, similar countries. Canada basically has had a number of realigning elections. So on a, on a more

01:23 - or less regular basis, there's been a big change in the party system. So much so that it kind of introduces a new party system. So we can think about Canadian party politics, and this is common in the literature as a sequence of party systems. Each one different from the one before it. And we're in the fourth one now. So the first party system was really from Confederation in 1867 up until the election of 1921,

01:51 - the first post-war election. And that's the period of normal party politics in Canada. That is to say, two national parties alternating in power, more or less, making similar appeals to different regions, classes and language groups. So you get this classic two party system. But even within that first party system, there was a realigning election, in 1896. Before that, the conservatives were dominant under the leadership of really the country's founders.

02:24 - So John A. McDonald. And then after 1896 party politics became dominated by the liberals and they were under the leadership of Sir Wilford Laurier. But the key to their newfound dominance was they began to make a special appeal to French Canada. Of course, French Canada constituted one third of all of Canadian population, and the liberals got a stranglehold on French Canadian voters based on cultural politics, really about

02:55 - language, religion, identity. And they That strong position in Quebec to remain the, the dominant party really throughout the 20th century. So that was the first party system. the second party system comes along 'cause the first party system's totally disrupted by World War I. the conservatives form a a sort of a common front government, and they take power throughout the war.

03:22 - the liberals are kind of reduced to a mostly French Canadian rump during the war years. British Canadians are loyal to Britain, and so they're supportive of the war effort. French Canada was opposed to it. And so that really creates a, a situation in Canada, which is not civil war, but it's one of the closest times we've come to Civil War in Canada. At the end of the war, the coalition breaks up.

03:46 - Conservatives have lost a lot of legitimacy as a result of their conduct of the war. And 1921 introduces, new Western populous parties. They, Western Canada produces these class-based populous parties. There's a lot of social conflict in the post-war era. and we're gonna have a new party system, we'll, we'll never have a two party system again after 1921. It's gonna be the liberals that are gonna be dominant.

04:15 - It's gonna be mainly the conservatives in opposition, but also a series of populist parties based in Western Canada, that are, also a feature of the party system. So, you know, we have, the progressives, which is farmer based party. We have the CCF, which is on a classic socialist party. We have the social credit, which is this right wing populist party, and they're all parties in the second party system. So the second party system much more fragmented.

04:46 - The liberals are dominant mostly under the leadership of William Blind McKenzie King, who is this. He was in power for 22 years. He was a master at brokerage politics, sort of accommodating linguistic and class and regional divisions within Canada. class-based voting never really takes hold in Canada throughout this whole period. And the liberals are sort of the natural governing party of Canada as a result of their ability

05:12 - to use cultural politics and regional politics to their advantage. So centrism kind of reigned supreme, in Canada during that whole period. So that's the first two party systems. and liberals are really dominant throughout the second party system, but that's gonna come to an end. as I said, the liberals are in power pretty well constantly. From 1921 up until 1957, very brief interlude at the,

05:42 - in the midst of the depression years, by nine, by the late 1950s. They're, they're very old party. I mean, the party leadership starts to look like one of those old Soviet borough, you know, pictures. You're all elderly men. Canadians are becoming increasingly uneasy, both with the, the dominance of sort of political and bureaucratic elite that's been in power for a long time. But also, there's a upwelling

06:11 - of Canadian nationalism that's starting. And in the post-war years, Canada is strongly moving into the US orbit economically becoming basically just an extension of the American economy. And so there starts to be a nationalist backlash against the direction that the liberals are taking the country at that time. And this results in another realigning election, and that's in 1958 when the conservatives come to power, under a rather unorthodox leader, who was kind

06:43 - of a western populist. John Diefenbaker. His name was, who's also, an old style Canadian nationalist. I say old style because he believed in sort of one country, nationalism, you know, one nation, one country. So it wasn't really popular in Quebec, but it was very popular with most of English Canada. And it's, it's, changes the whole realignment of the, party system. So from 19 50, 58 onwards,

07:11 - the conservatives really become the dominant party in Western Canada and the dominant party really in rural English speaking Canada. And ever since then, that's been true. So the conservatives have a very solid voter base from 1958 onwards, thanks to Deen Bakker. Really, the liberals during their period out of power kinda reorient themselves. I mean, Canada is becoming a more affluent, middle class urban society in those post-war years.

07:41 - You know, Lahr glory, the, those 30 years of economic prosperity everyone experienced. and that causes the liberals to rethink their strategy and their profile with voters. And they become more left-leaning. They become kind of a moderate social democratic party. They reinvigorate, the party in terms of their, their candidates and so on. And they become much more urban party, much more focused on urban voters

08:09 - because the cities are really growing in Canada. Big cities are becoming more dominant in terms of the voter base. And so now we have a new party system. There's one other party though that's important to this third party system, and that's a social democratic party on the left of the liberals called the New Democratic Party. They're formed in 1961. They're basically an offshoot of the old CCF,

08:34 - which was a socialist party of the old style in the thirties and forties. And they moderate and they form an alliance with organized labor, and they become a classic kind of social democratic labor type party competing for votes on the left with the liberals, mostly in urban Canada. And so we had these three parties that are competing in the third party system, liberals, conservatives, and NDP, but the liberals are once again dominant,

09:01 - and they're back in power in 63, and they stay in power right up until 1984. So once again, you know, more than two decades, decades of liberal dominance, mostly under the leadership of pure Elliot Trudeau, who is a very important prime minister in Canadian history. He, he really, gives the liberals a new purchase on the support of French Canadian voters and, increasing number of minority ethnic voters

09:32 - because the very high levels of immigration into Canada. And so the liberals become a priority once again of French Canada, but also of, visible minorities in Canada, especially in the cities. And Trudeau does this by crafting kind of a national unity, national identity strategy in which, he promotes Canada as a multicultural country. He passed a multiculturalism, policy, as an officially bilingual Canada. So he kind of brings,

10:04 - French Canada back into the liberal fold with this, linguistic policy and with his promise to bring in a new constitution based on a charter of rights and freedoms, whereby all Canadians will be equal as individuals, with a, with the idea that the provinces will also be all equal. He kind of resists the idea of Quebec nationalism. In fact, he came to Ottawa in 1965, really to combat the rise of separatism in Quebec.

10:35 - Trudeau is a, he is a quebecer, but he is opposed to Quebec nationalism and to the idea of separatism. So he becomes a real champion in English Canada because he's the main sort of obstacle to Quebec separatism. But at the same time, he appeals to French Canada with his linguistic policies and his, his idea that Canada should be, you know, two equal languages, French and English. So that's really, pat with the pattern

11:04 - of the third party system. So Canada, as I mentioned at the outset, really we've had four party systems. So we're in the fourth party system now. So that means that that third party system dominated by the liberals, again with Pierre Elliot Trudeau as a key figure, that that comes to an end. How did that happen? Brian Mulrooney, who was Prime Minister of Canada, a progressive conservative prime minister of Canada

11:31 - from 1984 to 1993, he managed to, again, the liberals were getting along in the tooth rather tired as a government. There was an economic recession in the early eighties. Trudeau retired in 1984, and a new liberal leader came in. All of this created an opportunity for the conservatives who were called the progressive Conservatives from the middle of the Second World War onward. And they elected a new leader who was a quebecer, a fluent,

11:59 - French speaker, Brian Mulrooney. and he had a strategy to bring Quebec into the conservative camp. He promised that he would, reform the Constitution that was passed in 1982 in order to give Quebec special status within the Constitution as a province, unlike the others. And Quebec nationalists who really resented Trudeaus, anti nationalism, they kind of flopped to Maro. And so, even the separatist party in Quebec,

12:32 - recommended that their supporters vote for Maroone in the 1984 election. And he had promised them to bring them into the Constitution with honor and enthusiasm, as he said. And so the conservatives won this massive majority in 1984, and it looked like Mulroney had pulled it off that he had realigned Canadian politics yet again. But it turned out to be a, a failed realignment. He had an electoral coalition, which was very, difficult to sustain Francophones and Franco Phobes

13:06 - and the Franco Phobes were Western Canadians who did not like the idea of special treatment for Quebec. So cultural politics once again, rears its head in Canadian, politics here. And he was able to sustain that electoral coalition over two majorities in 1988. He did it because he had a constitutional agreement called the Mic Lake Accord, which was signed by all the provinces, and he had a free trade agreement with the United States,

13:33 - which was really popular in Western Canada. So he managed to keep that coalition together. But between 1988 and 1983, it all fell apart. the constitutional reform agreement fell apart. the free trade agreement came into effect, but Canada immediately ran into an economic recession, with a lot of job losses to the United States, and big questions about whether or not free trade had been a big mistake. And in fact, Mahoney never won a majority

14:03 - support for free trade. He got about 43% in that election. So most Canadians actually voted against the free trade agreement. It's very popular now, but at the time it wasn't. And that set up a situation in 1993, a real electoral earthquake situation where, the conservative coalition Mulroney had put together fractures into three different blocks. the Quebec base of support was overtaken by

14:32 - a new, separatist party at the federal level. So there's kinda sister party to the separatist party at the provincial level, the party Quebec law, this was called the Block Quebec law, led by a very close confidant and friend of Maroone who abandoned the party when the Mech Lake Accord fell apart. He abandoned the party, started the block Quebec, and they won the majority of seats

14:53 - that the conservatives held in Quebec in the 1993 election. So now we have a separatist party at the federal level in Parliament. They actually formed the official opposition in 1993. They got 54 seats in the West. There was a real upsurge of Western neoliberal populism, which is very unhappy with the way in which Maroone and the Conservative party had catered to Quebec. And moreover, there were fiscal

15:23 - and economic, problems, that weren't being addressed by the government to the satisfaction of these Western populace. So they began a new party called the Reform Party, and they basically took over the western base of the Conservative Party so that, so that conservative party that John Deen Bay Grade created was destroyed in 1993, that the progressive conservative party has never recovered. In fact, they've disappeared now.

15:50 - They, eventually gave up the ghost and merged with this reform Western Reform party to create a new conservative party of Canada. That happened in 2003. but as long as though that, division between the progressive conservatives, the Reform Party, and the Block Quebecois, as long as that was the case, it opened the door for the liberals to once again become the dominant party. And so the liberals, the last brokerage party standing

16:21 - really, they were able to once again assume power between 1993 and 2004 under Jean. so that kind of extended that period of liberal dominance all the way up to 2004, the fourth party system, the party system we're in now, it's very different from the third party system. Third party system was dominated by brokerage politics, by again, by centrist politics, again, by liberal liberals were able to, dominate during most of that period.

16:54 - Maroone just kind of copied the liberals and displaced them for a short period of time. This new party system we're in now is much more ideologically polarized because the reform party, which took over the progressive conservative party is much more right wing, much more ideologically right wing than the old progressive conservative party. the block Quebec law has continued

17:20 - to be a large factor in our politics and continues to win, a majority or close to a majority of the seats in Quebec election and election out. And so we have this party system now with the liberals, the NDP, this new conservative party and the Block Quebec law, and the sort of a small green party, that are all competing in this party system. But the big difference about this party system really

17:47 - is in terms of the, the voter basis. and there was some difference of opinion that were expressed by voting behavior experts about whether we had really seen a dramatic change in Canadian voting behavior. One group of voting behaviorists said, no, we still have sort of weak partisan, partisanship in Canada. We, we have volatility because the electorate's willing to,

18:16 - to move quickly from one party to another. They're not ideologically committed, and that's still the kind of party politics we have in Canada. But then there was another group of beha voter behaviorists, behavior theorists who said, no, the evidence doesn't point that way anymore. The evidence instead points to an increasingly ideologically divided electorate with much more partisan sorting.

18:41 - This is where voters identify, with a particular party or group of parties based on ideological orientation. And that would suggest that Canadian exceptionalism may in fact be, if not, at an end, at least the possibility is that we're moving away from it towards something that looks much more like a, a left right ideologically polarized party system. and we're, we're not quite there at the moment. the liberals are still in power.

19:17 - They, they came back to power in 2015 after losing power in, 2004 to the conservatives. They came back to power in 2015 under Justin Trudeau, who is Pierre Elliot Trudeau's son. and that was a surprise because in the previous election, the liberals had actually finished third and instead the NDP was the official opposition. A left-wing party conservatives, and much more right wing party were the government.

19:45 - And it looked like in 2011, yeah, it's happened. We have now an ideologically polarized mainly two party system. And then in 2015, all of a sudden Justin Trudeau becomes the leader of the liberal party. the liberals move left onto NDP territory and between Trudeau's attraction as a new leader, and this left move to the left of the liberal party, the liberals were able to win the election of 2015.

20:15 - A majority in fact. But in 20 19, 20 21, that turned into two minority governments with a coalition between the liberals and the NDP, keeping the left at center parties in power. but all of the data and all of the surveys that we have now suggest that the conservatives are poised to regain power in the next election, which is due in 2025 as a much more right wing alternative, very solidly neoliberal in terms

20:45 - of their ideological orientation, much more so than the old progressive conservative party. And the NDP and the liberals are almost indistinguishable in terms of their party platforms. and as a result, I think we're on the verge really of, sort of a, a final realignment of the Canadian party system and maybe an end to Canadian exceptionalism, the fly in the ointment. Cultural politics could continue

21:13 - because we still have Quebec and we still have this separate disparity, the block Quebec law whose voters are basically voting for them because they're nationalists or they favor Quebec independence. And that could, could still, be a big factor preventing this nice sort of movement towards, you know, left, right, ideologically polarized politics. We'll, we'll see what happens.

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