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Recidivism of Paroled Murderers

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John Anderson discusses how the Australian and international recidivism literature is synthesised in the specific context of murderers released to parole.

Image courtesy of interviewee. March 14, 2024

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This video video discusses the author's extensive research on life imprisonment, particularly focusing on the recidivism rates of murderers who have been released on parole after serving time. The author argues that life imprisonment, especially without parole, serves primarily as a punitive measure rather than a rehabilitative one, often leading to a perception of absolute retribution for offenders.

The author highlights findings from various studies indicating that the recidivism rates for homicide offenses among released murderers are very low, typically ranging from 1% to 3%. While some studies report higher overall recidivism rates when including minor offenses, the author emphasizes that violent re-offending and repeat homicides are extremely rare.

This video video also addresses the difficulties in accurately predicting which offenders pose a future risk to society, suggesting a need for improved tools to assess the dangerousness of inmates over time. The conclusion argues against the absolute nature of life sentences without parole, suggesting that such sentences may deny individuals the chance to rehabilitate and reintegrate into society, thus potentially serving a disservice to both the offenders and the community. Ultimately, the author calls for reconsideration of the utility of life imprisonment without parole, advocating for a balanced approach that considers rehabilitation alongside community safety.

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The context for the study is a broader

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research context in which I've been studying the sentence

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of life imprisonment since I completed my PhD

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over 20 years ago.

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Um, so it's been an ongoing, study

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and there have been different aspects to it.

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So this current study relates to,

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looking at doing a qualitative analysis

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and, a of different studies

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that have been conducted in relation to recidivism

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of murderers who have been released to parole,

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when sentenced to life imprisonment,

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but being allowed to be released, the sentence

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of life imprisonment itself.

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Um, when I completed my PhD research

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and subsequent research I've done on life imprisonment,

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it was found that it was a sentence of absolute,

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retribution, incapacitation

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or an extreme form of incapacitation, which,

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certainly doesn't allow for the other purposes

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of sentencing, including rehabilitation to be considered.

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And it's simply, it's really a, a form of,

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absolute revenge on that person, in the form of,

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never to be released to parole.

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So the other points that, we were,

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I mean I, in talking about whether it's justified

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or not, it's, it's, that's a moot question.

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I suppose. Some people can be forever dangerous,

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but that is, very difficult to predict.

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And, we don't have sophisticated enough procedures,

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tools, as a psychoanalysis

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forensic psychiatrist that can accurately do that,

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well into the future.

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So the thing about life sentences is some people when

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they're sentenced to life imprisonment can be

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relatively young, can be, you know,

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in their twenties or thirties.

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So they would have a very, very long time

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to serve in prison without any, chance of release

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and without any sort of prospect of being reassessed as

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to their dangerousness to the community.

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And whether or not, what they've done initially

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is something that would be repeated if they were,

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were released, which is, of course, the dangerous situation.

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So, turning to some of the Australian cases, I mean,

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there are very few cases where we have had recidivist,

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homicide offenders.

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Um, there have been prisoners who have been sentenced

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for murders and been released

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and have committed other crimes, violent crimes,

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but there are very few that have committed,

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homicide offenses, particularly murder offenses.

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When we talk about the category of homicide, we, of course,

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including all, unnatural deaths, which will be murder

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as the worst form of unnatural death, down

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to manslaughter

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and other forms of, death resulting from,

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driving offenses, assaults and things like that.

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So there is a range of homicide offenses as well.

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Um, so in relation to some of the cases that have sort of,

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and they get very high profile, of course,

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in the media if they are released to parole

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and then commit further violent offenses,

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particularly if they can,

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commit further homicide offenses.

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Um, very few in Australia.

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I mean, Adrian Bailey is probably one of the,

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notorious cases from the state of Victoria where, he was

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on parole and committed some a, a brutal rape

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and murder of a, a journalist.

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And there was a lot of sort of comeback looking at whether

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or not, the release to parole was appropriate,

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those sorts of things.

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He, he was quite a, he did have a,

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a very long history of violence against women,

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so there was that as well.

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Um, he was eventually sentenced to life imprisonment,

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but still did get another, did get an on parole period

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of 35 years,

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but it'll be whether he'll be released to parole in time.

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Uh, Terence Leary was another one in New South Wales

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who was released, from serving a murder sentence

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and was convicted of a serious sexual assault offense,

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not a another killing, the only one really in,

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new South Wales is the case of Walsh,

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who committed another, who was in prison for murder,

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and had committed, had murdered members of his family.

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And, he actually then, whilst he was in prison,

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killed one of his cellmates.

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So that was a, a murder

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in prison while still serving the prison sentence,

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so hadn't actually been released into the community.

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So those are the sort of cases that do attract a lot

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of the media attention, but,

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but sort of skew the, thinking about whether

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or not, murderers are recidivists.

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So when we talk about recidivism, as a, as a measure,

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it's, there are different ways of measuring it.

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You know, you, you can, you can,

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there are some recidivism studies that talk about arrest

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and charge some that talk about having to go

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through the court process and resulting in conviction

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and re imprisonment. So

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Is that, what is the recidivism measure?

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So the recidivism measure that I used for this study was

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that there had to be a reconviction

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and it had to be of a homicide offense,

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and it had to be resulting re imprisonment.

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So in Australia, there have been some studies conducted as

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to, recidivism, general studies about recidivism.

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Um, very few specific studies about,

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recidivism by murderers.

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So, there are more international studies in that regard.

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But in Australia, the, research really shows

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that, there has been, depending on the sort

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of the parameters of the study, what definitions are used,

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what measures are used, what follow up periods are used.

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So recidivism studies often, you know, from release, the,

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the period of follow up can vary from between, you know,

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a couple of years, right up to 30

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or 40 years, particularly if you are looking at release of

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homicide offenders, you are looking at a, a desist,

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whether there's desistence over the period

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of a particular course of time, which includes the,

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can include the entire life course.

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So there are different measures

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and different types of studies that have been done.

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But most of the Australian studies

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that I looked at in this particular, study that I did,

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and I was doing a qualitative analysis of all these studies,

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there were a few from New South Wales.

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So the study completed by Thompson in 1995

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showed that, there was low recidivism in relation to

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those released from prison

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who had committed murder offenses.

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And if they did, there was a,

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no, homicide recidivism.

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There was actually,

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only there was some violent recidivism, but it was very low.

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Um, a lot of the recidivism we see,

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and you know, the figures that are quoted, you know, 40

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and 50% recidivism, the recidivism is actually,

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breach of parole, minor breach of parole

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or minor offenses.

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Um, might be different types of offenses,

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might be property offenses or drug offenses

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or other types of offenses,

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but certainly not, a significant amount

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of violent re-offending

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and certainly no homicide re-offending.

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So it's,

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although you do see in studies, recidivism rates,

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which do sort of, you think, there are,

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there are quite a, a number of people who,

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offend again when they leave prison.

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I think when you take a deeper dive into that data

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and you look at the nuances and you

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Consider the data much more carefully, you'll see

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that it's not startling the rec recidivism

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because you are not getting violent or homicide reoffenders.

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So there, there were, there were a number

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of other studies done, 2016 study

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on serious violent offenders,

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which showed a very small percentage of,

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recidivism.

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Again, there was a Victorian study in 2007,

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which also showed that, it was a very,

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very low amount of,

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recidivism from homicide offenders.

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So very small percentages.

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So you are looking at, you know, between say, one to 3%

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of offenders that are really offending in committing

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homicides again, and the, and the,

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the homicide range can be across manslaughter

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as well as murder.

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And then you've got, you may have, you know, up to, 10%

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or so, in the Victorian study in 2007,

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there was a very small percentage

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of convicted murderers, 5%

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and homicide offenders, 3% that returned to prison.

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Um, there was, only 1% of those

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that really counted for reconviction for murder,

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and probably the, the best study,

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the latest one we've seen in, Australia,

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in western Australia using survival analysis techniques

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was in 2017.

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And that particular one showed a,

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out of, 1088 homicide offenders that were,

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released in the sample over a longitudinal period.

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So it was quite a long, study.

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This one, only three out of those were identified as

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what we call homologous recidivists, homicide,

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there, and only one of those

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was a true homologous offender in the sense

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of murder committing a murder.

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So, that data from West Australia,

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in the latest study shows that there's been,

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it's an extreme rarity.

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Homicide, offending is a re, extreme rarity

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in, all those homicide re-offending, I should say,

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is a, an extreme rarity in all those studies.

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So, in that

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overall then I suppose what it does show us about the risk

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of violent

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and homicidal recidivism in this distinct

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group of offenders.

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So I'm talking about those who've been

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previously convicted of murder. Um,

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The risk of re-offending for a violent offense,

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and a is, is low,

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although it does occur,

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and the risk of committing the same offense

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that homologous offending is extremely low

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and is very rare, it does not happen as a general rule.

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Um, so

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therefore, that assistance from violent crime in this

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distinct group of offenders is significant,

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during the life course they do,

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they do show over long periods of time,

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and the longitudinal studies show we would refer to

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as bulk desistence offending generally,

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and from re-offending with, homologous homicides

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or even serious violent offenses.

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International studies do, show very similar

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to the Australian study.

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So I looked at, there was one New Zealand study which showed

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there was only 4% of convicted murderers

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reconvicted of another offense during the study

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that was done in 2002,

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and there was no, there were no,

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homologous homicide offenders in that category.

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There were some violent offenses recommitted,

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but there was no,

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re-offending in homicide, Canada.

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There were a number of studies done in Canada.

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There were some early studies and some later studies.

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They've all showed very low levels of, so in,

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2002 studies, there was a,

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a 0.3% re-offending, of offenders

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with homologous homicide.

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Um, an earlier 1992 study had showed

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0.76%, five out of 658

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offenders released to parole,

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had committed another homicide,

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or were convicted of a convicted of another murder.

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So I did use that measure of recidivism

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that there was a conviction for murder

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and a re imprisonment.

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And also there was a 2010 study in Canada

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over a 30 year period, which showed, again,

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homicide recidivism was extremely small, very low.

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Um, the United States is another, jurisdiction,

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which also does support those findings.

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There have been quite a few studies in the United States.

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There's a 2011 study by newly, which showed the extreme

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rarity of homo homologous homicide offending.

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There was a 2014 study in, Philadelphia

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by Lim, which showed, again,

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about 3% of offenders recidivating

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by committing another homicide while most of the,

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54% of offenders who did recidivate.

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Again, you're getting those high numbers, committed minor

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nonviolent offenses, probation violations,

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those sorts of things.

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So there was very general theme from the North American

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studies is that it's exceptional for recidivist conduct

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of homicide offenders to involve another killing,

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particularly murder.

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And the other one that I looked at

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that I think really was supportive of this was the,

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was the market and Sorenson study that was done in,

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relation to the Furman decision in the Supreme Court

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of the United States, when the capital punishment had been

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found to be unconstitutional.

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And there were a number of inmates

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that were released under the Furman decision,

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and that was a study that showed,

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and they were capital offenders, so they're actually,

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they had death sentences, not life sentences,

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but they were released to, to parole.

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And there was a, a very small proportion of those

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that were released over the period that the Furman decision,

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held fast in the United States

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before the Supreme Court came back

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and said the capital punishment was constitutional again.

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Um, there was 79% of those

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that were released didn't commit further crimes.

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There were 239 Furman commuted prisoners

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that were released.

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And, in the community, 79%

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of those didn't commit further crimes.

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And a very small proportion of them, around 12%

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of them committed a range of felonies,

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some involving violence,

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but, there were no other homicides,

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committed by those offenders.

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So, you can extrapolate data from that

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to show that,

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to actually deprive those prisoners of the opportunity

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for release, would've been,

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detrimental really to the community.

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It then would've really been a simply a slow execution,

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to re to keep them in prison for life.

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So most, the large majority of those,

17:14.995 --> 17:16.765
prisoners didn't recidivate.

17:17.385 --> 17:19.925
Uh, the other jurisdictions I looked at internationally,

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England and Wales, again, they showed a very low proportion

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of life sentence prisoners.

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I think the Mitchell

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and Roberts study from 2012 showed

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that there were less than 0.5% of persons,

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who were released for convictions for murder

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or manslaughter, who were then, reconvicted

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of murder or manslaughter.

17:46.065 --> 17:50.485
So it was, over 6,000 prisoners released

17:50.625 --> 17:52.405
during a 10 year period.

17:53.185 --> 17:57.445
And around 30 of those, which was less than 0.5%,

17:58.235 --> 18:02.165
were reconvicted for those types of offenses.

18:02.705 --> 18:07.245
And the other, area of the world, which has had a number

18:07.245 --> 18:12.085
of studies done in this regard is Scandinavia, so Finland

18:12.085 --> 18:14.165
and Sweden, and they all show,

18:14.695 --> 18:17.405
there are some very good studies there by Maki Li

18:17.985 --> 18:22.365
and others, and also, stirrup and lindquist.

18:22.385 --> 18:26.365
So there are a number of studies in 2013,

18:26.545 --> 18:29.565
2014 that show,

18:31.045 --> 18:34.965
prevalence rates ranging from about one to 3.5%

18:34.965 --> 18:36.565
of all homicides.

18:37.025 --> 18:41.365
And also generally a substantial period of time will elapse

18:41.365 --> 18:44.205
between the first and second,

18:44.645 --> 18:47.605
homicide in those particular countries.

18:47.605 --> 18:49.765
So international studies,

18:49.945 --> 18:53.405
and Australian studies are fairly consistent in that regard.

18:54.025 --> 18:56.805
But there is still is a very, very low rate of

18:57.275 --> 18:59.925
what we would call homologous homicide offending.

19:00.505 --> 19:03.965
And again, around finding sort of, you know, between 10

19:03.965 --> 19:07.005
to 15% of those offenders may commit

19:07.395 --> 19:09.845
what we would call violent offenses again,

19:10.465 --> 19:14.845
but it's still quite low comparatively to the numbers

19:15.665 --> 19:17.285
who are released and who don't offend

19:17.345 --> 19:20.205
or who commit very minor offenses.

19:20.475 --> 19:24.445
This was done really to look about, look at what the utility

19:24.545 --> 19:28.365
of a sentence of life imprisonment without parole would be,

19:29.025 --> 19:30.085
and whether

19:30.185 --> 19:34.405
or not recidivism of, offenders

19:34.405 --> 19:37.325
who had been released to parole for committing a crime

19:37.325 --> 19:39.365
of murder and been sentenced to life imprisonment

19:39.365 --> 19:42.125
and had the opportunity to be released to parole.

19:42.985 --> 19:46.725
Um, whether or not there was, a real danger

19:46.825 --> 19:50.725
and risk to society do, should we be prioritizing protection

19:50.725 --> 19:53.525
of the community over liberty

19:53.585 --> 19:58.325
of the citizen in allowing them to be released to parole,

19:59.065 --> 20:02.365
to, you know, have the opportunity to, to start life again,

20:02.825 --> 20:04.965
to show that they were reformed

20:04.965 --> 20:08.165
and that they wanted that opportunity to rejoin society.

20:08.825 --> 20:11.645
So it was really looking at, you know, what is their utility

20:12.385 --> 20:14.685
in the sentence of life imprisonment without parole,

20:14.685 --> 20:17.045
without ever considering someone

20:17.425 --> 20:19.205
for parole again, no matter what.

20:19.785 --> 20:23.725
Um, not taking, you know, taking this as one measure,

20:23.785 --> 20:26.285
but also I did refer to in the study

20:26.285 --> 20:29.965
that there has been an increasing sophistication and,

20:30.025 --> 20:33.845
and accuracy in predictive measures as to whether someone

20:34.395 --> 20:35.525
will become dangerous.

20:35.525 --> 20:38.165
So there are a number of tools that have been developed

20:38.305 --> 20:40.965
by psychiatrists and psychologists

20:41.025 --> 20:44.245
and others in relation to being able

20:44.245 --> 20:46.765
to predict dangerousness and being

20:46.765 --> 20:50.965
Able to assess people, at different stages

20:51.585 --> 20:54.965
of their, incarceration to

20:55.595 --> 20:56.725
look again at whether

20:56.825 --> 20:58.045
or not, you know,

20:58.075 --> 21:00.845
they may have been particularly dangerous at the time they

21:00.845 --> 21:02.845
were sentenced to life imprisonment.

21:02.845 --> 21:05.765
But has that changed throughout the period

21:05.765 --> 21:06.805
that they've been in prison?

21:07.025 --> 21:09.485
Has there been a, has there been, you know,

21:10.165 --> 21:12.925
a success in the sentencing and correction period?

21:13.505 --> 21:18.405
So this was, something that I was looking at really,

21:19.105 --> 21:23.405
directed to with, is there utility in life,

21:23.525 --> 21:25.325
imprisonment without parole?

21:25.465 --> 21:30.325
And just forming another plank in an argument to say

21:30.435 --> 21:35.265
that there is life imprisonment is simply without parole,

21:35.445 --> 21:38.225
is, is simply a form of absolute retribution,

21:38.695 --> 21:43.305
extreme incapacitation, which is not necessarily justified.

21:43.725 --> 21:48.425
And we are not allowing our fellow citizens, I know they,

21:49.095 --> 21:50.465
they have offended

21:50.605 --> 21:53.145
and offended gravely against society

21:53.645 --> 21:57.065
by committing heinous crimes and murder offenses.

21:57.165 --> 21:58.785
But in the end,

21:58.965 --> 22:02.665
should we not be still allowing them the opportunity to show

22:03.175 --> 22:04.505
that they can reform

22:05.085 --> 22:08.065
and that they can be successfully released from prison

22:08.535 --> 22:10.585
without being a risk to others?

22:11.445 --> 22:15.385
Um, it, it, of course, you know, there is a caution in that,

22:15.815 --> 22:17.345
that, we have to be

22:18.055 --> 22:21.105
very careful about releasing offenders who have that sort

22:21.105 --> 22:22.825
of pattern of history

22:22.845 --> 22:24.545
and the types of crimes they've committed.

22:24.545 --> 22:27.985
But otherwise, it was really looking at that.

22:28.085 --> 22:31.905
So I mean, I, I came down to looking in the final analysis

22:31.965 --> 22:34.665
to saying there was a, a demonstrated

22:34.725 --> 22:38.905
and vast me measure of desistance from serious crime

22:39.365 --> 22:42.585
and subsequent homicides by murderers released to parole.

22:43.085 --> 22:44.345
And therefore I think that's

22:44.365 --> 22:48.225
of significant weight in determining the measure of success

22:48.765 --> 22:50.265
of sentencing and corrections.

22:50.765 --> 22:54.025
And then at the same time, with sophisticated

22:54.085 --> 22:58.065
and reliable modern methods for assessing the future risk

22:58.065 --> 23:01.665
of previously violent offenders, then we can get more

23:02.355 --> 23:04.105
confidence in the accuracy

23:04.105 --> 23:06.905
of predictions about violent re-offending.

23:07.445 --> 23:12.185
And it leads to that argument, or it helps to prop up

23:12.185 --> 23:15.185
or develop the argument that the sentence

23:15.185 --> 23:19.225
of life imprisonment is of limited, if any utility

23:19.285 --> 23:20.785
for most convicted murderers

23:21.245 --> 23:24.185
and even for the community from which they've been excu

23:24.505 --> 23:28.865
excluded, because you are potentially excluding, people

23:28.885 --> 23:31.385
who can contribute back to society

23:31.395 --> 23:35.185
after they have gone through a period of reformation.

23:35.445 --> 23:39.595
So release procedures are not infallible,

23:40.095 --> 23:43.635
but, when we think of what we are trying

23:43.635 --> 23:47.805
to do in corrections, in really rehabilitate

23:48.065 --> 23:51.925
and, try to give,

23:51.995 --> 23:56.005
prisoners the opportunity to take their place in society

23:56.425 --> 24:01.245
and resume their liberty in an ordinary way, are we doing a,

24:02.045 --> 24:03.325
a disservice to them

24:03.585 --> 24:05.725
and to the community when we have sentences of

24:06.315 --> 24:09.525
life imprisonment without any prospect of release on parole?

24:10.145 --> 24:15.005
So it was developing planks in arguments about the,

24:15.025 --> 24:18.765
the distil in my view of the natural life sentence.

00:00 - The context for the study is a broader research context in which I've been studying the sentence of life imprisonment since I completed my PhD over 20 years ago. so it's been an ongoing, study and there have been different aspects to it.

00:19 - So this current study relates to, looking at doing a qualitative analysis and, a of different studies that have been conducted in relation to recidivism of murderers who have been released to parole, when sentenced to life imprisonment, but being allowed to be released, the sentence of life imprisonment itself. when I completed my PhD research and subsequent research I've done on life imprisonment,

00:53 - it was found that it was a sentence of absolute, retribution, incapacitation or an extreme form of incapacitation, which, certainly doesn't allow for the other purposes of sentencing, including rehabilitation to be considered. And it's simply, it's really a, a form of, absolute revenge on that person, in the form of, never to be released to parole. So the other points that, we were, I mean I, in talking about whether it's justified

01:35 - or not, it's, it's, that's a moot question. I suppose. Some people can be forever dangerous, but that is, very difficult to predict. And, we don't have sophisticated enough procedures, tools, as a psychoanalysis forensic psychiatrist that can accurately do that, well into the future. So the thing about life sentences is some people when they're sentenced to life imprisonment can be relatively young, can be, you know,

02:11 - in their twenties or thirties. So they would have a very, very long time to serve in prison without any, chance of release and without any sort of prospect of being reassessed as to their dangerousness to the community. And whether or not, what they've done initially is something that would be repeated if they were, were released, which is, of course, the dangerous situation. So, turning to some of the Australian cases, I mean, there are very few cases where we have had recidivist,

02:48 - homicide offenders. there have been prisoners who have been sentenced for murders and been released and have committed other crimes, violent crimes, but there are very few that have committed, homicide offenses, particularly murder offenses. When we talk about the category of homicide, we, of course, including all, unnatural deaths, which will be murder as the worst form of unnatural death, down to manslaughter

03:23 - and other forms of, death resulting from, driving offenses, assaults and things like that. So there is a range of homicide offenses as well. so in relation to some of the cases that have sort of, and they get very high profile, of course, in the media if they are released to parole and then commit further violent offenses, particularly if they can, commit further homicide offenses. very few in Australia.

03:54 - I mean, Adrian Bailey is probably one of the, notorious cases from the state of Victoria where, he was on parole and committed some a, a brutal rape and murder of a, a journalist. And there was a lot of sort of comeback looking at whether or not, the release to parole was appropriate, those sorts of things. He, he was quite a, he did have a, a very long history of violence against women, so there was that as well.

04:28 - he was eventually sentenced to life imprisonment, but still did get another, did get an on parole period of 35 years, but it'll be whether he'll be released to parole in time. Terence Leary was another one in New South Wales who was released, from serving a murder sentence and was convicted of a serious sexual assault offense, not a another killing, the only one really in, new South Wales is the case of Walsh, who committed another, who was in prison for murder,

05:02 - and had committed, had murdered members of his family. And, he actually then, whilst he was in prison, killed one of his cellmates. So that was a, a murder in prison while still serving the prison sentence, so hadn't actually been released into the community. So those are the sort of cases that do attract a lot of the media attention, but, but sort of skew the, thinking about whether or not, murderers are recidivists.

05:35 - So when we talk about recidivism, as a, as a measure, it's, there are different ways of measuring it. You know, you, you can, you can, there are some recidivism studies that talk about arrest and charge some that talk about having to go through the court process and resulting in conviction and re imprisonment. So Is that, what is the recidivism measure? So the recidivism measure that I used for this study was that there had to be a reconviction

06:05 - and it had to be of a homicide offense, and it had to be resulting re imprisonment. So in Australia, there have been some studies conducted as to, recidivism, general studies about recidivism. very few specific studies about, recidivism by murderers. So, there are more international studies in that regard. But in Australia, the, research really shows that, there has been, depending on the sort of the parameters of the study, what definitions are used,

06:43 - what measures are used, what follow up periods are used. So recidivism studies often, you know, from release, the, the period of follow up can vary from between, you know, a couple of years, right up to 30 or 40 years, particularly if you are looking at release of homicide offenders, you are looking at a, a desist, whether there's desistence over the period of a particular course of time, which includes the, can include the entire life course. So there are different measures

07:16 - and different types of studies that have been done. But most of the Australian studies that I looked at in this particular, study that I did, and I was doing a qualitative analysis of all these studies, there were a few from New South Wales. So the study completed by Thompson in 1995 showed that, there was low recidivism in relation to those released from prison who had committed murder offenses. And if they did, there was a,

07:52 - no, homicide recidivism. There was actually, only there was some violent recidivism, but it was very low. a lot of the recidivism we see, and you know, the figures that are quoted, you know, 40 and 50% recidivism, the recidivism is actually, breach of parole, minor breach of parole or minor offenses. might be different types of offenses, might be property offenses or drug offenses

08:23 - or other types of offenses, but certainly not, a significant amount of violent re-offending and certainly no homicide re-offending. So it's, although you do see in studies, recidivism rates, which do sort of, you think, there are, there are quite a, a number of people who, offend again when they leave prison. I think when you take a deeper dive into that data

08:52 - and you look at the nuances and you Consider the data much more carefully, you'll see that it's not startling the rec recidivism because you are not getting violent or homicide reoffenders. So there, there were, there were a number of other studies done, 2016 study on serious violent offenders, which showed a very small percentage of, recidivism. Again, there was a Victorian study in 2007,

09:24 - which also showed that, it was a very, very low amount of, recidivism from homicide offenders. So very small percentages. So you are looking at, you know, between say, one to 3% of offenders that are really offending in committing homicides again, and the, and the, the homicide range can be across manslaughter as well as murder. And then you've got, you may have, you know, up to, 10%

09:57 - or so, in the Victorian study in 2007, there was a very small percentage of convicted murderers, 5% and homicide offenders, 3% that returned to prison. there was, only 1% of those that really counted for reconviction for murder, and probably the, the best study, the latest one we've seen in, Australia, in western Australia using survival analysis techniques was in 2017.

10:36 - And that particular one showed a, out of, 1088 homicide offenders that were, released in the sample over a longitudinal period. So it was quite a long, study. This one, only three out of those were identified as what we call homologous recidivists, homicide, there, and only one of those was a true homologous offender in the sense of murder committing a murder. So, that data from West Australia,

11:15 - in the latest study shows that there's been, it's an extreme rarity. Homicide, offending is a re, extreme rarity in, all those homicide re-offending, I should say, is a, an extreme rarity in all those studies. So, in that overall then I suppose what it does show us about the risk of violent and homicidal recidivism in this distinct group of offenders.

11:47 - So I'm talking about those who've been previously convicted of murder. The risk of re-offending for a violent offense, and a is, is low, although it does occur, and the risk of committing the same offense that homologous offending is extremely low and is very rare, it does not happen as a general rule. so therefore, that assistance from violent crime in this

12:23 - distinct group of offenders is significant, during the life course they do, they do show over long periods of time, and the longitudinal studies show we would refer to as bulk desistence offending generally, and from re-offending with, homologous homicides or even serious violent offenses. International studies do, show very similar to the Australian study. So I looked at, there was one New Zealand study which showed

12:55 - there was only 4% of convicted murderers reconvicted of another offense during the study that was done in 2002, and there was no, there were no, homologous homicide offenders in that category. There were some violent offenses recommitted, but there was no, re-offending in homicide, Canada. There were a number of studies done in Canada. There were some early studies and some later studies.

13:27 - They've all showed very low levels of, so in, 2002 studies, there was a, a 0.3% re-offending, of offenders with homologous homicide. an earlier 1992 study had showed 0.76%, five out of 658 offenders released to parole, had committed another homicide, or were convicted of a convicted of another murder. So I did use that measure of recidivism

14:02 - that there was a conviction for murder and a re imprisonment. And also there was a 2010 study in Canada over a 30 year period, which showed, again, homicide recidivism was extremely small, very low. the United States is another, jurisdiction, which also does support those findings. There have been quite a few studies in the United States. There's a 2011 study by newly, which showed the extreme rarity of homo homologous homicide offending.

14:40 - There was a 2014 study in, Philadelphia by Lim, which showed, again, about 3% of offenders recidivating by committing another homicide while most of the, 54% of offenders who did recidivate. Again, you're getting those high numbers, committed minor nonviolent offenses, probation violations, those sorts of things. So there was very general theme from the North American studies is that it's exceptional for recidivist conduct

15:16 - of homicide offenders to involve another killing, particularly murder. And the other one that I looked at that I think really was supportive of this was the, was the market and Sorenson study that was done in, relation to the Furman decision in the Supreme Court of the United States, when the capital punishment had been found to be unconstitutional. And there were a number of inmates that were released under the Furman decision,

15:45 - and that was a study that showed, and they were capital offenders, so they're actually, they had death sentences, not life sentences, but they were released to, to parole. And there was a, a very small proportion of those that were released over the period that the Furman decision, held fast in the United States before the Supreme Court came back and said the capital punishment was constitutional again. there was 79% of those

16:15 - that were released didn't commit further crimes. There were 239 Furman commuted prisoners that were released. And, in the community, 79% of those didn't commit further crimes. And a very small proportion of them, around 12% of them committed a range of felonies, some involving violence, but, there were no other homicides, committed by those offenders.

16:45 - So, you can extrapolate data from that to show that, to actually deprive those prisoners of the opportunity for release, would've been, detrimental really to the community. It then would've really been a simply a slow execution, to re to keep them in prison for life. So most, the large majority of those, prisoners didn't recidivate. the other jurisdictions I looked at internationally,

17:19 - England and Wales, again, they showed a very low proportion of life sentence prisoners. I think the Mitchell and Roberts study from 2012 showed that there were less than 0.5% of persons, who were released for convictions for murder or manslaughter, who were then, reconvicted of murder or manslaughter. So it was, over 6,000 prisoners released during a 10 year period.

17:53 - And around 30 of those, which was less than 0.5%, were reconvicted for those types of offenses. And the other, area of the world, which has had a number of studies done in this regard is Scandinavia, so Finland and Sweden, and they all show, there are some very good studies there by Maki Li and others, and also, stirrup and lindquist. So there are a number of studies in 2013, 2014 that show, prevalence rates ranging from about one to 3.5%

18:34 - of all homicides. And also generally a substantial period of time will elapse between the first and second, homicide in those particular countries. So international studies, and Australian studies are fairly consistent in that regard. But there is still is a very, very low rate of what we would call homologous homicide offending. And again, around finding sort of, you know, between 10 to 15% of those offenders may commit

19:07 - what we would call violent offenses again, but it's still quite low comparatively to the numbers who are released and who don't offend or who commit very minor offenses. This was done really to look about, look at what the utility of a sentence of life imprisonment without parole would be, and whether or not recidivism of, offenders who had been released to parole for committing a crime of murder and been sentenced to life imprisonment

19:39 - and had the opportunity to be released to parole. whether or not there was, a real danger and risk to society do, should we be prioritizing protection of the community over liberty of the citizen in allowing them to be released to parole, to, you know, have the opportunity to, to start life again, to show that they were reformed and that they wanted that opportunity to rejoin society. So it was really looking at, you know, what is their utility in the sentence of life imprisonment without parole,

20:14 - without ever considering someone for parole again, no matter what. not taking, you know, taking this as one measure, but also I did refer to in the study that there has been an increasing sophistication and, and accuracy in predictive measures as to whether someone will become dangerous. So there are a number of tools that have been developed by psychiatrists and psychologists and others in relation to being able

20:44 - to predict dangerousness and being Able to assess people, at different stages of their, incarceration to look again at whether or not, you know, they may have been particularly dangerous at the time they were sentenced to life imprisonment. But has that changed throughout the period that they've been in prison? Has there been a, has there been, you know,

21:10 - a success in the sentencing and correction period? So this was, something that I was looking at really, directed to with, is there utility in life, imprisonment without parole? And just forming another plank in an argument to say that there is life imprisonment is simply without parole, is, is simply a form of absolute retribution, extreme incapacitation, which is not necessarily justified. And we are not allowing our fellow citizens, I know they, they have offended

21:50 - and offended gravely against society by committing heinous crimes and murder offenses. But in the end, should we not be still allowing them the opportunity to show that they can reform and that they can be successfully released from prison without being a risk to others? it, it, of course, you know, there is a caution in that, that, we have to be very careful about releasing offenders who have that sort

22:21 - of pattern of history and the types of crimes they've committed. But otherwise, it was really looking at that. So I mean, I, I came down to looking in the final analysis to saying there was a, a demonstrated and vast me measure of desistance from serious crime and subsequent homicides by murderers released to parole. And therefore I think that's of significant weight in determining the measure of success of sentencing and corrections.

22:50 - And then at the same time, with sophisticated and reliable modern methods for assessing the future risk of previously violent offenders, then we can get more confidence in the accuracy of predictions about violent re-offending. And it leads to that argument, or it helps to prop up or develop the argument that the sentence of life imprisonment is of limited, if any utility for most convicted murderers and even for the community from which they've been excu

23:24 - excluded, because you are potentially excluding, people who can contribute back to society after they have gone through a period of reformation. So release procedures are not infallible, but, when we think of what we are trying to do in corrections, in really rehabilitate and, try to give, prisoners the opportunity to take their place in society and resume their liberty in an ordinary way, are we doing a, a disservice to them

24:03 - and to the community when we have sentences of life imprisonment without any prospect of release on parole? So it was developing planks in arguments about the, the distil in my view of the natural life sentence.

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