Popular in Social Sciences

Books

City Time: On Being Sentenced to Rikers Island

Independent Scholar David A. Campbell

Culture and Society

The City as a Growth Machine: Toward a Political Economy of Place

New York University Harvey Moltoch

Economics

Gender and Economics

University of California Santa Barbara Shelly Lundberg

American Politics

Keeping the Republic

Boston College Marc Landy

Banks and Policy Organisations

Greening the financial sector

European Investment Bank Matteo Ferrazzi

British Politics

Entrepreneurial thinking: the politics and practice of policy impact

University of Sheffield Matthew Flinders

Culture and Society

Carceral Entrapments: Views from the Prison/Street Interface in India

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Mahuya Bandyopadhya

Russia and the Arctic: Constructing a New Cold War?

View more insights in Social Sciences - Political Science

View more figures from University of Southern California

View the page of Robert English

Read the Study

The main threat to Arctic security comes not from military rivalry but climate change, and the common dangers we face from accelerating environmental collapse. Robert English evaluates these dangers, and discusses how we can defend against them.

Image courtesy of interviewee. June 10, 2024

Generating Workspace

Export as PDF

This video discusses the increasingly tense geopolitical situation in the Arctic, which was previously seen as a zone of peace for nearly 30 years following the end of the Cold War. The area has transformed into a zone of military rivalry, primarily between Russia and Western NATO countries, exacerbated by the aftermath of the Ukrainian invasion, leading to a significant halt in cooperation on crucial issues including environment and scientific research.

The speaker emphasizes the irony of nations seeing each other as adversaries while facing a common existential threat: climate change. The Arctic is experiencing accelerating environmental degradation, including melting permafrost, increased wildfires, and rising sea levels, which require international collaboration that is now obstructed by geopolitical tensions.

Historically, the Arctic Council facilitated cooperative efforts among the eight Arctic states (US, Canada, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Denmark), resulting in various agreements on environmental protection and resource management. However, the recent militarization and the freezing of diplomatic relations have halted this cooperative spirit.

The primary concerns raised include growing military buildups, the risk of accidental conflict, and the urgent need to address environmental challenges. The speaker calls for a renewed commitment to international cooperation post-Ukraine conflict, as the Arctic holds the potential for mutual benefit and collaboration in tackling climate issues rather than conflicts over resources.

Ultimately, the speaker argues that the true enemy is the looming threat of environmental collapse, which cannot be tackled unilaterally, and stresses the importance of rekindling collaborative efforts for the health of the Arctic and the planet.

Language:

Export as PDF

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP:LOCAL=00:00:00.000,MPEGTS=900000

00:00.395 --> 00:03.215
Now what's happening in the high North in the Arctic is

00:03.685 --> 00:07.495
very troubling, and it's potentially tragic, a region

00:07.525 --> 00:09.735
that had been described as a zone of peace

00:09.835 --> 00:11.175
for nearly 30 years, right?

00:11.265 --> 00:14.775
Since the end of the Cold War is now abruptly becoming a

00:14.775 --> 00:18.295
zone of rivalry and potential military confrontation.

00:18.795 --> 00:21.335
The Russians on one side and America

00:21.555 --> 00:23.615
and the NATO members on the other side

00:24.155 --> 00:26.215
are building up military power.

00:26.365 --> 00:29.295
They're deploying more ships, more aircraft.

00:29.485 --> 00:31.895
They're basically facing off against each other

00:31.995 --> 00:34.335
as they conduct pole, patrols

00:34.335 --> 00:37.615
and maneuvers, circling each other.

00:37.905 --> 00:42.055
Wally. And meanwhile, cooperation on environmental issues,

00:42.155 --> 00:43.375
on scientific research

00:43.555 --> 00:46.415
and a whole host of other priorities has come

00:46.415 --> 00:47.855
to a halt, right?

00:47.995 --> 00:51.215
For 30 years, roughly from 91 92

00:51.665 --> 00:56.135
until 20 21, 20 22, it was this zone of peace.

00:56.435 --> 00:59.455
It was, referred to as this exceptional, the zone

00:59.455 --> 01:00.695
of Arctic exceptionalism.

01:01.195 --> 01:03.975
It seemed isolated from the kind of conflicts

01:03.975 --> 01:07.055
that would spill over into great power rivalries

01:07.055 --> 01:08.215
everywhere else in the world.

01:08.715 --> 01:12.575
Um, no longer ever since the invasion of Ukraine

01:13.245 --> 01:15.695
cooperation has been frozen,

01:15.835 --> 01:17.815
and it's coming at the worst possible time.

01:18.475 --> 01:20.015
Um, what my colleagues

01:20.015 --> 01:23.015
and I in our research are particularly concerned about is

01:23.015 --> 01:24.215
this is also a time

01:24.805 --> 01:27.775
when environmental degradation is accelerating.

01:28.205 --> 01:30.535
When the crises before us,

01:30.645 --> 01:35.095
with everything from polar wildfires, permafrost melt,

01:35.245 --> 01:36.895
coastal erosion storms,

01:37.635 --> 01:42.255
and many more problems, just as they're becoming more grave,

01:42.285 --> 01:45.215
just as they demand more international cooperation,

01:46.035 --> 01:47.255
we are cooperating less.

01:48.035 --> 01:50.255
And I like to put it in a kind of ironic way.

01:50.475 --> 01:54.595
We are now seeing each other as enemies, right?

01:54.735 --> 01:57.235
The Russians and the Western powers and the Arctic.

01:57.655 --> 01:58.675
We were cooperating.

01:58.855 --> 02:01.755
We were maybe not friends, but we were colleagues,

02:02.095 --> 02:03.155
but now we're enemies.

02:03.415 --> 02:05.195
Now we're facing off Wally.

02:05.935 --> 02:09.275
And it's happening right when the real enemy is just over

02:09.275 --> 02:11.715
the horizon, and that is climate disaster.

02:12.295 --> 02:14.475
And that real enemy demands cooperation

02:14.475 --> 02:16.195
because the problems I've described,

02:16.195 --> 02:17.795
and we'll go into more detail,

02:17.925 --> 02:20.715
those problems cannot be solved nationally.

02:20.715 --> 02:22.515
They cannot be addressed unilaterally.

02:22.745 --> 02:25.115
They demand transnational cooperation

02:25.625 --> 02:26.835
just when we've halted it.

02:27.095 --> 02:29.315
So that is the looming tragedy of the Arctic.

02:29.895 --> 02:32.395
The, those 30 years of Arctic exceptionalism

02:33.265 --> 02:34.515
were truly exceptional.

02:35.135 --> 02:39.595
Um, I could say in a nutshell that the Arctic powers,

02:39.775 --> 02:41.075
and that's eight countries, right?

02:41.295 --> 02:45.635
The us, Canada, Russia, Norway, Sweden,

02:45.995 --> 02:47.315
Finland, Iceland,

02:47.615 --> 02:51.435
and Denmark, those eight countries achieved a whole series

02:51.455 --> 02:54.795
of agreements, bilateral multilateral agreements, again,

02:54.795 --> 02:57.035
on everything from environmental protection,

02:57.785 --> 03:01.565
fisheries regulation, marine mammal protection,

03:02.185 --> 03:05.285
oil spill, and environmental pollution, recovery,

03:05.935 --> 03:07.045
navigation, search

03:07.065 --> 03:11.325
and rescue, commercial regulation, on and on.

03:11.785 --> 03:14.605
Um, so it was a remarkable blossoming of cooperation, unlike

03:14.955 --> 03:17.205
what we've seen in any other region of the world,

03:17.345 --> 03:19.805
not in Southeast Asia, not in Africa.

03:20.465 --> 03:21.885
It was truly a model.

03:22.185 --> 03:26.325
So much so that, scholars began looking at the Arctic

03:26.705 --> 03:28.685
as perhaps an exemplar for other regions.

03:28.745 --> 03:30.445
How were they doing it? Right?

03:30.505 --> 03:32.965
Um, what institutions, what kind

03:32.965 --> 03:36.765
of leadership is it a model for future global governance

03:36.765 --> 03:38.085
around the globe, right?

03:38.105 --> 03:40.365
We were starting classes in global governance

03:40.365 --> 03:42.405
and cooperation, and the Arctic

03:42.425 --> 03:43.645
seemed to be leading the way.

03:45.265 --> 03:47.525
Um, so that's the first thing.

03:47.745 --> 03:51.285
All of this cooperation broke out parallel simultaneously.

03:51.465 --> 03:54.165
Of course, it was important that the militarization,

03:54.585 --> 03:57.165
the military side went down, right?

03:57.165 --> 03:59.525
During the Cold War, the Arctic was a venue

03:59.945 --> 04:01.805
for confrontation, right?

04:01.805 --> 04:04.525
We had our cat, cat and mouse games at sea.

04:04.945 --> 04:08.005
We had under sea, through our submarines

04:08.005 --> 04:11.765
with nuclear missiles circling and tracking each other.

04:11.905 --> 04:13.645
And of course, missiles

04:13.955 --> 04:16.965
that might have been fired would transit the polar regions

04:17.225 --> 04:19.405
and bombers and surveillance aircraft

04:19.435 --> 04:20.685
were constantly circling.

04:21.225 --> 04:23.925
So it was a highly militarized, dangerous region.

04:24.265 --> 04:26.965
And when the Cold War ended, much of that went away.

04:27.985 --> 04:29.085
Um, the United States,

04:29.225 --> 04:32.845
the Western Allies definitely reduced their presence, right?

04:33.095 --> 04:36.845
Bases in Greenland, bases in Iceland were dialed back.

04:37.265 --> 04:39.005
The level of activity was reduced.

04:39.625 --> 04:40.845
Um, you know,

04:41.095 --> 04:44.445
there wasn't an American aircraft carrier across the Arctic

04:44.465 --> 04:46.125
Circle for more than 20 years.

04:46.985 --> 04:48.645
Um, but in fairness, we have to admit

04:48.645 --> 04:50.285
that it was the Russian side

04:50.635 --> 04:52.885
that demilitarized even more, right?

04:52.885 --> 04:55.365
They had an extensive presence in the Arctic as well,

04:56.065 --> 04:58.845
and it just tumbled down, right?

04:58.845 --> 05:03.205
They probably cut their Arctic presence by about 90%, right?

05:03.205 --> 05:06.245
Their northern fleet, their navy was sharply reduced.

05:06.755 --> 05:08.365
They closed many bases

05:08.705 --> 05:11.325
and, you know, significantly reduced all kinds

05:11.325 --> 05:12.605
of military activity.

05:13.025 --> 05:16.445
And so together with the Russians, the NATO powers, the us,

05:16.905 --> 05:17.925
it just got quiet.

05:18.585 --> 05:20.605
It wasn't scary and threatening anymore,

05:21.025 --> 05:24.325
and that allowed this blossoming of scientific cooperation

05:24.425 --> 05:26.725
of environmental research and all the rest.

05:27.505 --> 05:31.965
Um, that's what happened for those 25, almost 30 years.

05:32.345 --> 05:33.925
And the last thing I'd like to say is

05:34.115 --> 05:37.245
what put it all together was a remarkable new organization

05:37.385 --> 05:40.245
called the Arctic Council, right?

05:40.465 --> 05:42.165
The eight Arctic powers that I mentioned

05:42.705 --> 05:46.645
formed on their own, this new international,

05:46.645 --> 05:49.565
this intergovernmental agency, not under the United Nations,

05:49.825 --> 05:53.765
not under any other great power condominium or control.

05:53.795 --> 05:56.885
They came together as equals in Ottawa, Canada

05:57.145 --> 06:01.605
In 1996 and signed the charter of this Arctic Council.

06:02.185 --> 06:06.565
And that's the organization that has facilitated so much

06:07.115 --> 06:10.365
negotiation, so much cooperation, so much research.

06:10.785 --> 06:11.925
It has working groups.

06:12.145 --> 06:14.925
It has full members and observer members, right?

06:15.185 --> 06:18.965
It has special subgroups for, again, environment, commerce,

06:19.665 --> 06:22.165
social, political, cultural, right,

06:22.185 --> 06:24.085
native people's concerns.

06:24.545 --> 06:27.885
Um, the Arctic Council did all of that remarkably well.

06:28.905 --> 06:32.845
So we have an institution, a model institution that together

06:32.845 --> 06:34.725
with that demilitarization

06:34.945 --> 06:38.765
and together with that desire to solve problems

06:38.985 --> 06:43.445
and come to agreement, tied it all in one into one knot

06:43.585 --> 06:45.925
and just performed remarkably.

06:46.345 --> 06:47.365
And that's what's at risk.

06:47.425 --> 06:50.365
Now, it's a number of things, and I'll get to Russia

06:51.265 --> 06:53.325
and the invasion Ofra in a moment.

06:54.105 --> 06:56.485
But a good decade or decade and a half

06:56.505 --> 06:59.205
before that, at the beginning of the two thousands,

06:59.705 --> 07:01.045
things started to change,

07:01.865 --> 07:04.365
and a sense of rivalry began creeping in,

07:04.475 --> 07:07.645
because that's when we saw this rapid melting

07:07.645 --> 07:08.685
of the polar ice caps,

07:08.765 --> 07:11.965
particularly in the summers when the ice recedes.

07:11.965 --> 07:16.725
Anyway, in 2007, in 2011, there were remarkable

07:17.365 --> 07:18.765
retreats of that polar ice.

07:18.865 --> 07:21.325
And suddenly, right, the oil companies,

07:21.545 --> 07:24.365
the mineral extraction companies, the shipping companies,

07:24.875 --> 07:28.005
tourism containers, tankers,

07:28.075 --> 07:31.445
everybody saw some potential for gain in the Arctic.

07:32.065 --> 07:34.605
Now we can get at these minerals, now we can tap

07:34.605 --> 07:35.645
that oil or gas.

07:36.385 --> 07:39.725
Now we can ship a shortcut between Europe and Asia.

07:40.265 --> 07:44.245
So this expectation of a just a buzzing hive of activity

07:45.165 --> 07:46.765
suddenly burst on the scene again

07:46.765 --> 07:47.885
in the early two thousands.

07:48.345 --> 07:50.245
And it was hard for that not

07:50.265 --> 07:54.485
to immediately become securitized to become a competition,

07:54.635 --> 07:57.525
because we want the oil, but so do they.

07:57.895 --> 07:59.685
Who's gonna get the mineral resources?

07:59.855 --> 08:01.165
Who's gonna get the contracts?

08:01.675 --> 08:04.605
What about the territorial issues that haven't been settled?

08:04.865 --> 08:08.205
Is that natural gas in our zone or in Norways?

08:08.465 --> 08:12.245
Is it in Russia's or Finlands? So on and on.

08:12.415 --> 08:15.165
There was this sense that we have to position ourselves,

08:15.345 --> 08:18.405
we have to get ready for a oil rush.

08:18.405 --> 08:21.285
People were calling it a resource race or an oil rush.

08:21.945 --> 08:25.645
And that even though it would take decades for that actually

08:25.785 --> 08:29.605
to begin happening, there was already a sense of rivalry

08:29.745 --> 08:33.125
and a sense of getting poised right to compete.

08:33.585 --> 08:36.045
And as soon as that was on the horizon, then

08:36.045 --> 08:37.805
of course there was concern about,

08:37.915 --> 08:39.085
well, who's more powerful?

08:39.265 --> 08:40.645
Who can assert their rights?

08:40.785 --> 08:43.045
Who could grab territory if they want to?

08:43.495 --> 08:46.725
Who's gonna be dominant and who's gonna be pushed aside?

08:47.425 --> 08:50.085
And so that immediately turned attention to, well,

08:50.085 --> 08:51.285
who has the icebreakers?

08:51.665 --> 08:54.565
Who has the, the frigates and destroyers?

08:54.665 --> 08:57.045
Who has the submarines that can operate up there,

08:57.255 --> 08:59.445
whose air force has that reach?

08:59.545 --> 09:02.485
And above all, who has more arctic bases?

09:03.345 --> 09:05.205
And so within a couple of years,

09:05.595 --> 09:08.965
even though nothing had really changed, right on the water

09:09.145 --> 09:10.405
or on the ice, I should say,

09:11.065 --> 09:12.925
the whole atmosphere had changed.

09:13.145 --> 09:15.005
And now it was one of competition.

09:15.985 --> 09:19.765
And, that went on for a decade in this sort

09:19.765 --> 09:23.485
of parla state where there was a sense of looming rivalry,

09:23.845 --> 09:26.805
a fear of each other, but nothing was really happening

09:27.785 --> 09:31.455
until 20 21, 20 22, and the Ukraine crisis.

09:32.475 --> 09:34.975
And then, then of course, the fear of Russia

09:35.395 --> 09:39.015
and Russia's fear of the West became absolutely palpable.

09:39.595 --> 09:41.175
And cooperation stopped.

09:41.475 --> 09:43.615
The military buildups grew,

09:43.995 --> 09:47.695
and we've kind of fallen almost into a spiral, what we used

09:47.695 --> 09:51.495
to call a, you know, sort of a security dilemma

09:51.905 --> 09:56.255
where we suddenly see their military assets as a threat.

09:57.035 --> 10:00.575
And so we want to build up and they see us building up

10:00.915 --> 10:02.295
and see us as a threat.

10:02.485 --> 10:06.975
Each of us perceive our own ports, our own airfields,

10:07.355 --> 10:10.655
our own military presence as defensive

10:11.395 --> 10:12.855
and the other guys as offensive.

10:13.315 --> 10:17.175
So each step to strengthen our defenses looks like an

10:17.175 --> 10:18.535
offensive move by the other.

10:18.795 --> 10:20.455
And around and around we go,

10:20.755 --> 10:22.255
and we are now unfortunately,

10:22.255 --> 10:24.335
following into a spiral of that sort.

10:24.955 --> 10:28.695
Um, we very much hope that it won't

10:29.335 --> 10:31.295
actually spill into real conflict.

10:31.885 --> 10:35.455
Both sides are very wary that we have nuclear weapons

10:36.275 --> 10:37.695
and that that would be tragic,

10:38.435 --> 10:40.095
but neither side wants to back down.

10:40.715 --> 10:41.895
So the tension is high.

10:42.395 --> 10:44.775
The confrontations continue,

10:45.395 --> 10:49.425
and I've gotta say war in the Arctic.

10:50.005 --> 10:51.905
Nobody wants it intentionally,

10:52.085 --> 10:55.145
but this is an area where accidental war is more

10:55.145 --> 10:56.305
likely than anywhere else.

10:56.645 --> 10:59.865
Why is that? Because accidental war happens when you have a

10:59.865 --> 11:02.665
collision at sea, when you have a false alarm

11:02.725 --> 11:05.465
for a missile launch, when you have some kind

11:05.465 --> 11:09.025
of miscommunication over an over flight when an airplane

11:09.025 --> 11:11.465
gets lost and accidentally flies over

11:12.025 --> 11:13.585
sensitive territory of the other side.

11:13.795 --> 11:16.945
These are the things that have started wars in the past have

11:16.945 --> 11:17.945
started the shooting.

11:18.325 --> 11:20.985
And I gotta tell you, the likelihood of those kinds

11:20.985 --> 11:22.625
of accidents in the Arctic

11:23.285 --> 11:25.985
is much greater than in other places, simply

11:25.985 --> 11:29.025
because it is so hostile, right?

11:29.025 --> 11:31.665
This is a region that is dark six months of the year.

11:32.125 --> 11:36.745
It has increasing storm activity, icing at sea,

11:37.575 --> 11:40.625
more electromagnetic interference than you can imagine.

11:41.005 --> 11:43.145
And all of these wreak havoc with warning,

11:43.335 --> 11:46.345
with communications, with ordinary coordination

11:46.925 --> 11:48.945
to deescalate potential conflict,

11:49.565 --> 11:52.625
it could happen accidentally in the Arctic, in the blink

11:52.625 --> 11:55.045
of an eye, even though nobody wants it.

11:55.585 --> 11:59.325
And once somebody's killed, once something is damaged, then

11:59.325 --> 12:02.245
of course we posture, we retaliate,

12:02.745 --> 12:05.885
and it could get very bad Russian invasion

12:05.905 --> 12:07.645
of Ukraine, right?

12:07.785 --> 12:12.645
In February of 2022, by the way, which followed of course,

12:12.695 --> 12:15.485
years of tension over the annexation of Crimea

12:16.065 --> 12:18.165
and disturbances in the Donbass.

12:18.425 --> 12:19.805
It didn't happen overnight.

12:20.225 --> 12:23.085
It was already affecting some Arctic cooperation

12:23.115 --> 12:25.405
because the west was already sanctioning Russia.

12:26.665 --> 12:30.885
But then February, 2022 and all bets were off.

12:31.595 --> 12:33.845
What first happened was outrage

12:33.845 --> 12:36.805
and denunciation justifiable and understandable.

12:37.275 --> 12:38.605
What happened next was

12:38.605 --> 12:40.805
that essentially Russia was frozen

12:40.945 --> 12:42.045
out of the Arctic Council.

12:42.545 --> 12:45.045
The Arctic Council simply, simply stopped meeting

12:45.115 --> 12:47.285
with Russia and any business

12:47.285 --> 12:49.165
that the other Arctic powers had,

12:49.355 --> 12:51.725
they conducted privately, excluding Russia.

12:52.785 --> 12:55.285
Um, in addition to the Arctic Council,

12:55.295 --> 12:57.885
there are a whole host of subsidiary organizations

12:58.155 --> 13:00.725
that had built up around it, right?

13:00.725 --> 13:02.885
There's the, you know, for example, the Euro,

13:02.945 --> 13:04.925
the Barrens, Euro Arctic Council,

13:04.925 --> 13:07.565
there's the Arctic Coast Guard Forum.

13:08.055 --> 13:11.485
There are various political and cultural exchange groups.

13:12.345 --> 13:13.605
All of these were frozen.

13:14.085 --> 13:17.085
Russia's participation in all of them was suspended.

13:17.085 --> 13:19.325
In some cases, Russia was simply kicked out.

13:19.545 --> 13:21.325
In other cases, Russia left.

13:22.265 --> 13:26.405
And so formal arc to council cooperation came to a halt.

13:26.545 --> 13:28.605
And all this informal diplomacy

13:28.785 --> 13:31.045
and contacts came to a halt as well.

13:31.825 --> 13:34.685
So that means we're not moving forward anymore,

13:35.305 --> 13:36.605
and we're actually going backwards.

13:36.625 --> 13:39.725
And one of the things within that halt to cooperation

13:40.035 --> 13:43.285
that is most concerning, it's the end to environmental

13:43.345 --> 13:45.245
and scientific collaboration.

13:46.835 --> 13:49.685
That means, for example, that even western scientists

13:49.945 --> 13:52.645
who were working with the Arctic colleagues on collecting

13:52.645 --> 13:54.605
data about, let's say radioactivity

13:55.345 --> 13:58.205
or permafrost in release of methane, right?

13:58.695 --> 14:02.165
Again, we need to know what's happening in their country,

14:02.265 --> 14:04.245
in their regions, just as they need

14:04.245 --> 14:05.685
to know what's happening in ours.

14:05.785 --> 14:07.965
We all have studies and research

14:08.145 --> 14:11.525
and data collection that don't stop at national borders

14:11.715 --> 14:14.805
because these problems don't stop at national borders.

14:15.185 --> 14:17.525
But unfortunately, all of that's been halted.

14:17.865 --> 14:20.965
And why I focus on that is not only does that mean

14:21.475 --> 14:24.445
that we won't be able to address some

14:24.445 --> 14:26.445
of the environmental problems, we won't be able

14:26.445 --> 14:30.085
to anticipate where they're going as well as we could have

14:30.665 --> 14:33.125
had this scientific collaboration continued.

14:33.745 --> 14:34.965
It also means something worse.

14:34.985 --> 14:37.405
It means a young generation of scientists

14:37.985 --> 14:42.605
and, researchers on both sides are no longer

14:42.605 --> 14:45.525
meeting each other, are no longer becoming colleagues,

14:45.545 --> 14:46.965
are no longer collaborating,

14:47.145 --> 14:48.725
are no longer forming friendships

14:48.905 --> 14:50.445
and going to the same conferences.

14:51.330 --> 14:54.525
And you know, that's really tragic

14:54.635 --> 14:57.765
because that's gonna have an impact that lasts generations.

14:58.145 --> 15:02.525
We know that the Cold War itself ended in part

15:03.115 --> 15:04.285
because of that kind

15:04.285 --> 15:07.765
of collaboration built up over the years of Deante in the

15:08.645 --> 15:11.085
1970s and early eighties, even when

15:12.005 --> 15:14.925
military confrontation was high, even when political

15:15.595 --> 15:19.525
rivalry was great, there was a large group

15:19.985 --> 15:23.445
of scientists, nuclear scientists, environmental scientists,

15:23.515 --> 15:26.205
political scientists who continued their work

15:26.665 --> 15:28.525
and collaboration between the US

15:28.705 --> 15:30.725
and the USSR, between the USSR

15:31.065 --> 15:32.685
and the European Union countries.

15:33.305 --> 15:36.045
And those people helped end the Cold War.

15:36.045 --> 15:39.205
Those people on both sides pushed Ronald Reagan

15:39.785 --> 15:44.165
and Michal Gorbachev to compromise to arms control,

15:44.165 --> 15:46.725
to new cultural and political agreements.

15:47.785 --> 15:51.845
So the young researchers in the Arctic who were laying

15:51.845 --> 15:56.285
that same kind of groundwork for better and better collegial

15:56.625 --> 15:58.325
and cooperative relations in the future

15:59.195 --> 16:00.725
have now been cut off at the knees.

16:01.625 --> 16:03.005
So the science suffers,

16:03.585 --> 16:07.165
and the, you could say the scientific diplomacy suffers,

16:07.745 --> 16:09.925
and I'm not sure which is worse in the long run,

16:10.305 --> 16:12.805
but both are really bad for

16:12.835 --> 16:15.245
what we need in the Arctic going forward.

16:16.145 --> 16:19.085
As I said before, I think

16:19.155 --> 16:21.205
it's probably not gonna happen.

16:24.355 --> 16:26.095
The conditions are dangerous.

16:27.035 --> 16:30.135
The rivalry is strong, the militarization is growing.

16:30.835 --> 16:34.375
The prickly confrontational attitudes on both sides are

16:34.375 --> 16:38.135
worse than ever, but through it all, there is a weariness

16:38.155 --> 16:41.175
and understanding that it could get really bad

16:41.405 --> 16:42.775
because of nuclear weapons.

16:43.075 --> 16:46.575
In a strange way, Ukraine is teaching us a lesson

16:47.355 --> 16:50.775
to not let that happen in the high North, seeing the kinds

16:50.775 --> 16:54.735
of destruction and the tit for tat escalation.

16:55.715 --> 16:58.055
Um, so the conditions are dangerous.

16:58.525 --> 17:00.695
They're highly charged, they're militarized.

17:01.275 --> 17:03.655
And as I said, the Arctic environment is hostile

17:03.915 --> 17:06.575
and very conducive to accident and misunderstanding.

17:06.955 --> 17:09.295
But throughout all, throughout all of that,

17:09.295 --> 17:10.375
there is a weariness

17:10.395 --> 17:13.015
and a caution that we don't wanna let it get out of hand.

17:13.955 --> 17:18.225
And I would also add one more thing, which is that

17:19.695 --> 17:24.165
there is an awareness underneath it all, that all

17:24.165 --> 17:25.245
of this is about nothing.

17:25.745 --> 17:29.005
Of course, it's about Ukraine, it's about reprisals, what,

17:29.005 --> 17:30.245
what Russia's doing in Ukraine.

17:30.665 --> 17:32.205
But there's a kind of understanding,

17:32.865 --> 17:35.245
and I know this from talking to naval people

17:35.305 --> 17:36.925
and air force veterans

17:37.185 --> 17:41.405
and arctic experts on both sides, which I've done for years.

17:41.965 --> 17:43.325
I know there's a kind of understanding

17:43.355 --> 17:45.405
that there's something unnecessary

17:45.425 --> 17:46.805
and artificial about all this,

17:46.915 --> 17:48.445
because there really is nothing

17:48.505 --> 17:50.285
to fight over up in the Arctic.

17:50.995 --> 17:53.845
What I mean by that is that oil

17:53.905 --> 17:58.635
and gas minerals, there is more than enough

17:59.495 --> 18:04.355
for everybody to keep pumping and drilling for another 20

18:04.375 --> 18:08.755
or 25 years in their own exclusive economic zones.

18:08.755 --> 18:10.075
In other words, onshore

18:10.095 --> 18:12.555
or near offshore, where there is no dispute

18:13.775 --> 18:15.315
for another 25 years

18:15.615 --> 18:18.275
before anyone would even think of going out

18:18.275 --> 18:21.035
to the North Pole, going out into contested territory.

18:21.335 --> 18:22.875
And if we're still drilling petroleum

18:22.875 --> 18:26.315
and burning it in 25 years, we're all dead anyway, right?

18:26.815 --> 18:29.795
So there's been this understanding that the

18:30.755 --> 18:32.875
resource scramble, the oil rush

18:33.345 --> 18:38.075
that was touted again back in 2007, 2012, is artificial.

18:38.185 --> 18:40.675
It's made up, but it'll never come to be.

18:41.225 --> 18:44.495
Furthermore, even if there wasn't the threat

18:44.555 --> 18:45.815
of greenhouse gases

18:45.815 --> 18:48.855
and just destroying our planet, it's also a fact

18:48.855 --> 18:52.935
that in the time, the last 10 years since that perception

18:52.935 --> 18:57.215
of a resource scramble, first burst on the scene,

18:57.235 --> 19:01.135
and today we've, we've seen a remarkable drop in the price

19:01.595 --> 19:05.735
of solar and wind power, remarkable progress in grid,

19:05.835 --> 19:07.895
in battery, in all kinds of storage

19:07.955 --> 19:11.575
and transmission of electricity, such that it's hard

19:11.575 --> 19:16.175
to imagine anyone ever needing that oil or gas in 25 years.

19:16.435 --> 19:19.775
In other words, the world is shifting away thanks

19:19.775 --> 19:21.135
to technological change,

19:21.355 --> 19:23.855
and thanks to the new economics of energy,

19:24.065 --> 19:26.455
we're shifting away from petroleum in any case.

19:27.315 --> 19:28.655
So the oil, gas,

19:28.795 --> 19:31.695
and coal that's under the ice, under the sea

19:31.695 --> 19:34.375
and the arctic will probably mostly remain there.

19:34.475 --> 19:36.855
And once we understand that, then we all step back

19:36.855 --> 19:38.735
and say, well then what is it we're fighting over?

19:39.425 --> 19:41.935
Right? Nobody needs anyone else's territory.

19:42.375 --> 19:44.815
Remember, the North Pole is a bunch of ice and water.

19:44.965 --> 19:47.215
There's no ground to grab up there.

19:47.755 --> 19:50.855
So if we don't want to take territory and,

19:51.435 --> 19:54.655
and we don't need the resources and they're too expensive

19:54.655 --> 19:55.975
and difficult to get anyway,

19:56.355 --> 19:59.935
and let's all step, take a step back, take a deep breath,

19:59.995 --> 20:02.735
and realize there's nothing much to fight over

20:03.835 --> 20:05.775
except what's happening in Ukraine,

20:05.915 --> 20:07.655
except what's happening in the Middle East.

20:08.515 --> 20:11.615
But that changes the picture dramatically when we realize

20:11.615 --> 20:14.495
that the Arctic itself is a zone of peace.

20:14.495 --> 20:18.135
The arctic itself itself has nothing worth fighting over

20:18.395 --> 20:20.375
and everything worth collaborating on.

20:21.275 --> 20:25.375
So my hope is that when the Ukraine war ends,

20:25.595 --> 20:26.655
and it must end,

20:26.995 --> 20:29.855
and it's a precondition for renewed cooperation,

20:29.925 --> 20:32.175
otherwise the hostility is just too high,

20:32.485 --> 20:34.775
even though it doesn't make sense, it's there.

20:35.235 --> 20:38.655
But when it does, I'm cautiously optimistic

20:38.805 --> 20:42.535
that there'll be a quick resumption of arctic cooperation

20:42.795 --> 20:45.855
and a catching up on so much research,

20:46.115 --> 20:49.405
so much collaboration, that we both need.

20:49.915 --> 20:53.645
Because if we don't prepare for the climate disaster,

20:54.545 --> 20:57.245
if we don't prepare for the environmental collapse

20:57.245 --> 21:00.845
that's coming and all the transnational effects,

21:01.025 --> 21:05.085
all the international spillover, then we will lose a war

21:05.345 --> 21:06.485
to enemy number one.

21:06.875 --> 21:08.445
It's not Russia, it's mother nature.

21:09.265 --> 21:13.165
The enemy, the common enemy that I'm talking about, the

21:13.685 --> 21:16.325
looming threat of environmental collapse

21:17.035 --> 21:18.885
that I say demands our cooperation.

21:18.885 --> 21:21.285
What is it? Am I being alarmist? I don't think so.

21:21.865 --> 21:25.525
And of course, this is the subject of this collaborative

21:26.365 --> 21:27.565
National Science Foundation project

21:27.595 --> 21:29.725
that I'm the principal investigator on

21:30.325 --> 21:33.285
investigating this sort of collision between the environment

21:33.385 --> 21:34.445
and geopolitics.

21:35.045 --> 21:36.285
I would point to three

21:36.465 --> 21:40.365
or four of the biggest threats to give you a concrete

21:40.425 --> 21:41.685
and tangible example.

21:41.985 --> 21:45.165
Number one is the thawing

21:45.165 --> 21:49.065
or the melting permafrost we've already seen.

21:50.085 --> 21:53.625
Not only does that cause a massive release of carbon dioxide

21:53.625 --> 21:56.025
and methane, right, which leads to this

21:56.625 --> 21:58.745
positive feedback loop of more warming,

21:58.775 --> 22:00.345
more melting, more warming.

22:01.165 --> 22:05.745
But it also is starting to have more immediate, tangible,

22:06.385 --> 22:08.625
destructive effects on arctic infrastructure.

22:09.125 --> 22:12.825
For example, in Russia, a massive tank of diesel fuel

22:13.895 --> 22:18.225
spilled into the tundra and flowed out into the arctic ocean

22:18.695 --> 22:21.825
because the ground underneath it collapsed.

22:21.925 --> 22:23.185
The permafrost melted.

22:24.165 --> 22:28.625
We have seen pipelines in Alaska, in Russia, in Canada,

22:29.305 --> 22:30.745
cracking and breaking

22:30.935 --> 22:34.625
because the soil underneath is heaving and buckling.

22:34.795 --> 22:37.625
We've seen roads break, we've seen bridges come down,

22:38.045 --> 22:39.825
and this is just the beginning.

22:40.805 --> 22:45.145
If the perms frost continues at this rate, the amount

22:45.145 --> 22:48.665
of infrastructure damage which spills over immediately into

22:48.665 --> 22:51.705
en environmental damage will be in the tens

22:51.705 --> 22:54.185
of billions annually to repair.

22:54.805 --> 22:57.065
And that's just in the next five, seven years.

22:57.565 --> 23:00.065
If we go out 15, 20 years, it grows

23:00.065 --> 23:01.185
by an order of magnitude.

23:01.205 --> 23:05.345
That's number one. Um, number number two, wildfires

23:06.645 --> 23:09.865
for several years, we've watched sometimes with a kind

23:09.865 --> 23:11.745
of sense of Schaden Freud, unfortunately,

23:12.165 --> 23:15.025
as Siberia was plagued with months

23:15.125 --> 23:17.545
and months of uncontrollable wildfires

23:17.885 --> 23:18.945
in the Russian Arctic.

23:19.605 --> 23:21.945
And of course that's putting an enormous amount of carbon

23:22.125 --> 23:23.545
and soot in the atmosphere.

23:23.885 --> 23:27.305
It has direct public health impacts on local communities,

23:27.805 --> 23:29.745
and then it spreads all over the Arctic

23:30.205 --> 23:31.305
and into the atmosphere.

23:32.215 --> 23:36.375
Well, guess what? Last summer, it was Canada's turn

23:37.285 --> 23:40.655
massive wildfire, struck the boreal forest in Canada,

23:41.035 --> 23:43.895
and again, did tens of billions in damage.

23:44.165 --> 23:47.365
That damage consists of the cost of firefighting,

23:47.535 --> 23:49.805
which in many cases is futile.

23:49.875 --> 23:50.885
They can't be stopped,

23:51.105 --> 23:53.445
but at least we try to protect certain communities.

23:53.785 --> 23:57.045
Number two, the impact on the forestry industry

23:57.185 --> 23:58.245
is catastrophic.

23:58.665 --> 23:59.965
And then of course, tourism

24:00.225 --> 24:03.125
and other affiliated industries suffer as well.

24:03.905 --> 24:08.365
So again, tens of billions in damage were done just in

24:08.925 --> 24:11.815
Quebec province alone last summer,

24:12.675 --> 24:14.935
and there's no reason we won't see worse

24:15.115 --> 24:18.055
and worse wildfire seasons in everybody's arctic.

24:18.445 --> 24:21.935
It's drier, it's hotter. The fire season lasts longer.

24:22.485 --> 24:24.815
It's a problem that is spiraling out of control

24:24.955 --> 24:28.095
and will consume so much of our resources just

24:28.115 --> 24:30.295
to ameliorate these immediate impacts.

24:30.645 --> 24:32.335
It's hard to know where we would get the money

24:32.595 --> 24:33.815
for more icebreakers

24:33.995 --> 24:36.095
and missiles in the Arctic anyway, right?

24:36.095 --> 24:38.255
They're drawing at the same limited budgets.

24:38.955 --> 24:40.735
Um, that's number two. What else?

24:40.735 --> 24:42.575
Number three, let's go out to the seas.

24:43.005 --> 24:44.655
Harmful algae blooms.

24:45.665 --> 24:49.435
We've all seen what happens when there's a red tide off

24:49.435 --> 24:50.995
of Florida, right?

24:50.995 --> 24:55.235
Or an algae bloom off of Cape Cod, massive die-offs of fish.

24:55.815 --> 24:58.795
And you probably know the cycle where the algae bloom.

24:59.455 --> 25:01.795
Um, right? They block out the sunlight,

25:01.925 --> 25:04.275
eventually they create a dead zone fish

25:04.455 --> 25:06.235
or marine mammals are wiped out.

25:06.305 --> 25:08.075
There's no oxygen, right?

25:08.215 --> 25:10.035
Um, and then there are all these toxins,

25:10.035 --> 25:12.755
these cytotoxins caused by the decomposition

25:12.935 --> 25:14.075
of the dead algae.

25:14.785 --> 25:18.755
Well, that problem, guess what is invading the arctic too?

25:19.095 --> 25:20.955
And we're seeing the microorganisms

25:21.375 --> 25:25.635
and the algae cysts that cause these blooms up north

25:25.655 --> 25:27.915
of the bearing strait for the first time.

25:28.615 --> 25:31.355
The likely impact on the native communities

25:31.355 --> 25:32.435
that rely on fishing

25:32.655 --> 25:36.915
and wailing, subsistence, wailing will be devastating.

25:37.495 --> 25:40.675
But don't forget, all of our North Atlantic species,

25:40.985 --> 25:45.195
haddock, cod, all kinds of crabs are all migrating north

25:46.085 --> 25:48.705
to find cold water, to find the right habitat,

25:49.525 --> 25:53.865
and they're already suffering from parasites, from collapse

25:53.865 --> 25:55.145
of their own food chain.

25:55.565 --> 25:58.105
You probably know that for several years running the king

25:58.175 --> 26:00.505
crab, snow crab, red crab harvest

26:01.085 --> 26:02.825
in Alaska have been canceled

26:03.215 --> 26:06.345
because the populations have fallen so low.

26:06.885 --> 26:08.625
Now imagine all of that repeated

26:08.645 --> 26:11.065
and magnified, not just for crustacean,

26:11.065 --> 26:14.505
but for fish, for marine mammals in the Arctic proper.

26:15.325 --> 26:16.385
Um, you have, again,

26:16.785 --> 26:19.065
devastating impacts on commercial fishing

26:19.645 --> 26:20.985
as well as subsistence fishing.

26:22.125 --> 26:24.225
So there's three. What else I could go on?

26:24.245 --> 26:27.105
Let me just quickly mention the most mysterious of all,

26:27.165 --> 26:30.425
and that is disease outbreaks, right?

26:30.735 --> 26:34.345
Anthrax, long dormant viruses

26:34.345 --> 26:36.785
and bacteria that have been frozen in the permafrost.

26:37.135 --> 26:39.465
It's very likely we will see perhaps even

26:39.835 --> 26:41.425
malal outbreaks, right?

26:41.525 --> 26:42.825
As these swampy areas

26:43.115 --> 26:44.115
Warm. Um,

26:44.115 --> 26:45.965
we don't know exactly what they'll be,

26:45.985 --> 26:49.765
but we can predict broad epidemic like outbreaks.

26:50.465 --> 26:53.725
And let me just close by saying like the wildfires,

26:54.275 --> 26:58.085
like the harmful algae blooms, like the permafrost, all

26:58.085 --> 27:00.645
of them will spill over international borders

27:01.705 --> 27:04.725
and do damage that we can only address jointly.

27:05.585 --> 27:07.285
So this is what's looming,

27:07.985 --> 27:11.885
and it could get enormously expensive, enormously dangerous,

27:12.585 --> 27:15.805
and it simply is impossible for us to address them

27:16.365 --> 27:18.405
unilaterally or nationally.

27:18.915 --> 27:22.485
This is why we need at some point, to resume

27:23.435 --> 27:25.005
rapidly and intensively.

27:25.025 --> 27:27.245
We need to resume collaboration with all

27:27.245 --> 27:30.525
of the Arctic states because it's going to get so bad.

27:30.585 --> 27:33.845
We can't imagine. And the kind of petty rivalries

27:34.145 --> 27:38.005
and the arctic agendas, the energy, the transport,

27:38.185 --> 27:41.125
the shipping, all of that will be pushed aside

27:41.585 --> 27:43.765
by one public emergency

27:44.305 --> 27:46.565
and one global disaster after another.

27:46.735 --> 27:47.765
We're not prepared,

27:48.385 --> 27:50.885
and I'm afraid, if we don't start preparing

27:51.345 --> 27:54.725
by cooperating when it comes, it'll be so much worse.

00:00 - Now what's happening in the high North in the Arctic is very troubling, and it's potentially tragic, a region that had been described as a zone of peace for nearly 30 years, right? Since the end of the Cold War is now abruptly becoming a zone of rivalry and potential military confrontation.

00:18 - The Russians on one side and America and the NATO members on the other side are building up military power. They're deploying more ships, more aircraft. They're basically facing off against each other as they conduct pole, patrols and maneuvers, circling each other. Wally. And meanwhile, cooperation on environmental issues, on scientific research and a whole host of other priorities has come

00:46 - to a halt, right? For 30 years, roughly from 91 92 until 20 21, 20 22, it was this zone of peace. It was, referred to as this exceptional, the zone of Arctic exceptionalism. It seemed isolated from the kind of conflicts that would spill over into great power rivalries everywhere else in the world. no longer ever since the invasion of Ukraine cooperation has been frozen,

01:15 - and it's coming at the worst possible time. what my colleagues and I in our research are particularly concerned about is this is also a time when environmental degradation is accelerating. When the crises before us, with everything from polar wildfires, permafrost melt, coastal erosion storms, and many more problems, just as they're becoming more grave, just as they demand more international cooperation,

01:46 - we are cooperating less. And I like to put it in a kind of ironic way. We are now seeing each other as enemies, right? The Russians and the Western powers and the Arctic. We were cooperating. We were maybe not friends, but we were colleagues, but now we're enemies. Now we're facing off Wally. And it's happening right when the real enemy is just over the horizon, and that is climate disaster.

02:12 - And that real enemy demands cooperation because the problems I've described, and we'll go into more detail, those problems cannot be solved nationally. They cannot be addressed unilaterally. They demand transnational cooperation just when we've halted it. So that is the looming tragedy of the Arctic. The, those 30 years of Arctic exceptionalism were truly exceptional.

02:35 - I could say in a nutshell that the Arctic powers, and that's eight countries, right? The us, Canada, Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Denmark, those eight countries achieved a whole series of agreements, bilateral multilateral agreements, again, on everything from environmental protection, fisheries regulation, marine mammal protection, oil spill, and environmental pollution, recovery, navigation, search

03:07 - and rescue, commercial regulation, on and on. so it was a remarkable blossoming of cooperation, unlike what we've seen in any other region of the world, not in Southeast Asia, not in Africa. It was truly a model. So much so that, scholars began looking at the Arctic as perhaps an exemplar for other regions. How were they doing it? Right? what institutions, what kind of leadership is it a model for future global governance

03:36 - around the globe, right? We were starting classes in global governance and cooperation, and the Arctic seemed to be leading the way. so that's the first thing. All of this cooperation broke out parallel simultaneously. Of course, it was important that the militarization, the military side went down, right? During the Cold War, the Arctic was a venue for confrontation, right?

04:01 - We had our cat, cat and mouse games at sea. We had under sea, through our submarines with nuclear missiles circling and tracking each other. And of course, missiles that might have been fired would transit the polar regions and bombers and surveillance aircraft were constantly circling. So it was a highly militarized, dangerous region. And when the Cold War ended, much of that went away. the United States,

04:29 - the Western Allies definitely reduced their presence, right? Bases in Greenland, bases in Iceland were dialed back. The level of activity was reduced. you know, there wasn't an American aircraft carrier across the Arctic Circle for more than 20 years. but in fairness, we have to admit that it was the Russian side that demilitarized even more, right? They had an extensive presence in the Arctic as well,

04:56 - and it just tumbled down, right? They probably cut their Arctic presence by about 90%, right? Their northern fleet, their navy was sharply reduced. They closed many bases and, you know, significantly reduced all kinds of military activity. And so together with the Russians, the NATO powers, the us, it just got quiet. It wasn't scary and threatening anymore, and that allowed this blossoming of scientific cooperation

05:24 - of environmental research and all the rest. that's what happened for those 25, almost 30 years. And the last thing I'd like to say is what put it all together was a remarkable new organization called the Arctic Council, right? The eight Arctic powers that I mentioned formed on their own, this new international, this intergovernmental agency, not under the United Nations, not under any other great power condominium or control. They came together as equals in Ottawa, Canada

05:57 - In 1996 and signed the charter of this Arctic Council. And that's the organization that has facilitated so much negotiation, so much cooperation, so much research. It has working groups. It has full members and observer members, right? It has special subgroups for, again, environment, commerce, social, political, cultural, right, native people's concerns. the Arctic Council did all of that remarkably well. So we have an institution, a model institution that together

06:32 - with that demilitarization and together with that desire to solve problems and come to agreement, tied it all in one into one knot and just performed remarkably. And that's what's at risk. Now, it's a number of things, and I'll get to Russia and the invasion Ofra in a moment. But a good decade or decade and a half before that, at the beginning of the two thousands, things started to change,

07:01 - and a sense of rivalry began creeping in, because that's when we saw this rapid melting of the polar ice caps, particularly in the summers when the ice recedes. Anyway, in 2007, in 2011, there were remarkable retreats of that polar ice. And suddenly, right, the oil companies, the mineral extraction companies, the shipping companies, tourism containers, tankers, everybody saw some potential for gain in the Arctic.

07:32 - Now we can get at these minerals, now we can tap that oil or gas. Now we can ship a shortcut between Europe and Asia. So this expectation of a just a buzzing hive of activity suddenly burst on the scene again in the early two thousands. And it was hard for that not to immediately become securitized to become a competition, because we want the oil, but so do they. Who's gonna get the mineral resources?

07:59 - Who's gonna get the contracts? What about the territorial issues that haven't been settled? Is that natural gas in our zone or in Norways? Is it in Russia's or Finlands? So on and on. There was this sense that we have to position ourselves, we have to get ready for a oil rush. People were calling it a resource race or an oil rush. And that even though it would take decades for that actually to begin happening, there was already a sense of rivalry and a sense of getting poised right to compete.

08:33 - And as soon as that was on the horizon, then of course there was concern about, well, who's more powerful? Who can assert their rights? Who could grab territory if they want to? Who's gonna be dominant and who's gonna be pushed aside? And so that immediately turned attention to, well, who has the icebreakers? Who has the, the frigates and destroyers? Who has the submarines that can operate up there,

08:57 - whose air force has that reach? And above all, who has more arctic bases? And so within a couple of years, even though nothing had really changed, right on the water or on the ice, I should say, the whole atmosphere had changed. And now it was one of competition. And, that went on for a decade in this sort of parla state where there was a sense of looming rivalry, a fear of each other, but nothing was really happening

09:27 - until 20 21, 20 22, and the Ukraine crisis. And then, then of course, the fear of Russia and Russia's fear of the West became absolutely palpable. And cooperation stopped. The military buildups grew, and we've kind of fallen almost into a spiral, what we used to call a, you know, sort of a security dilemma where we suddenly see their military assets as a threat. And so we want to build up and they see us building up and see us as a threat.

10:02 - Each of us perceive our own ports, our own airfields, our own military presence as defensive and the other guys as offensive. So each step to strengthen our defenses looks like an offensive move by the other. And around and around we go, and we are now unfortunately, following into a spiral of that sort. we very much hope that it won't actually spill into real conflict.

10:31 - Both sides are very wary that we have nuclear weapons and that that would be tragic, but neither side wants to back down. So the tension is high. The confrontations continue, and I've gotta say war in the Arctic. Nobody wants it intentionally, but this is an area where accidental war is more likely than anywhere else. Why is that? Because accidental war happens when you have a

10:59 - collision at sea, when you have a false alarm for a missile launch, when you have some kind of miscommunication over an over flight when an airplane gets lost and accidentally flies over sensitive territory of the other side. These are the things that have started wars in the past have started the shooting. And I gotta tell you, the likelihood of those kinds of accidents in the Arctic is much greater than in other places, simply

11:25 - because it is so hostile, right? This is a region that is dark six months of the year. It has increasing storm activity, icing at sea, more electromagnetic interference than you can imagine. And all of these wreak havoc with warning, with communications, with ordinary coordination to deescalate potential conflict, it could happen accidentally in the Arctic, in the blink of an eye, even though nobody wants it. And once somebody's killed, once something is damaged, then

11:59 - of course we posture, we retaliate, and it could get very bad Russian invasion of Ukraine, right? In February of 2022, by the way, which followed of course, years of tension over the annexation of Crimea and disturbances in the Donbass. It didn't happen overnight. It was already affecting some Arctic cooperation because the west was already sanctioning Russia. But then February, 2022 and all bets were off.

12:31 - What first happened was outrage and denunciation justifiable and understandable. What happened next was that essentially Russia was frozen out of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council simply, simply stopped meeting with Russia and any business that the other Arctic powers had, they conducted privately, excluding Russia. in addition to the Arctic Council,

12:55 - there are a whole host of subsidiary organizations that had built up around it, right? There's the, you know, for example, the Euro, the Barrens, Euro Arctic Council, there's the Arctic Coast Guard Forum. There are various political and cultural exchange groups. All of these were frozen. Russia's participation in all of them was suspended. In some cases, Russia was simply kicked out. In other cases, Russia left.

13:22 - And so formal arc to council cooperation came to a halt. And all this informal diplomacy and contacts came to a halt as well. So that means we're not moving forward anymore, and we're actually going backwards. And one of the things within that halt to cooperation that is most concerning, it's the end to environmental and scientific collaboration. That means, for example, that even western scientists who were working with the Arctic colleagues on collecting

13:52 - data about, let's say radioactivity or permafrost in release of methane, right? Again, we need to know what's happening in their country, in their regions, just as they need to know what's happening in ours. We all have studies and research and data collection that don't stop at national borders because these problems don't stop at national borders. But unfortunately, all of that's been halted. And why I focus on that is not only does that mean

14:21 - that we won't be able to address some of the environmental problems, we won't be able to anticipate where they're going as well as we could have had this scientific collaboration continued. It also means something worse. It means a young generation of scientists and, researchers on both sides are no longer meeting each other, are no longer becoming colleagues, are no longer collaborating, are no longer forming friendships

14:48 - and going to the same conferences. And you know, that's really tragic because that's gonna have an impact that lasts generations. We know that the Cold War itself ended in part because of that kind of collaboration built up over the years of Deante in the 1970s and early eighties, even when military confrontation was high, even when political rivalry was great, there was a large group of scientists, nuclear scientists, environmental scientists,

15:23 - political scientists who continued their work and collaboration between the US and the USSR, between the USSR and the European Union countries. And those people helped end the Cold War. Those people on both sides pushed Ronald Reagan and Michal Gorbachev to compromise to arms control, to new cultural and political agreements. So the young researchers in the Arctic who were laying that same kind of groundwork for better and better collegial

15:56 - and cooperative relations in the future have now been cut off at the knees. So the science suffers, and the, you could say the scientific diplomacy suffers, and I'm not sure which is worse in the long run, but both are really bad for what we need in the Arctic going forward. As I said before, I think it's probably not gonna happen. The conditions are dangerous.

16:27 - The rivalry is strong, the militarization is growing. The prickly confrontational attitudes on both sides are worse than ever, but through it all, there is a weariness and understanding that it could get really bad because of nuclear weapons. In a strange way, Ukraine is teaching us a lesson to not let that happen in the high North, seeing the kinds of destruction and the tit for tat escalation. so the conditions are dangerous. They're highly charged, they're militarized.

17:01 - And as I said, the Arctic environment is hostile and very conducive to accident and misunderstanding. But throughout all, throughout all of that, there is a weariness and a caution that we don't wanna let it get out of hand. And I would also add one more thing, which is that there is an awareness underneath it all, that all of this is about nothing. Of course, it's about Ukraine, it's about reprisals, what, what Russia's doing in Ukraine.

17:30 - But there's a kind of understanding, and I know this from talking to naval people and air force veterans and arctic experts on both sides, which I've done for years. I know there's a kind of understanding that there's something unnecessary and artificial about all this, because there really is nothing to fight over up in the Arctic. What I mean by that is that oil

17:53 - and gas minerals, there is more than enough for everybody to keep pumping and drilling for another 20 or 25 years in their own exclusive economic zones. In other words, onshore or near offshore, where there is no dispute for another 25 years before anyone would even think of going out to the North Pole, going out into contested territory. And if we're still drilling petroleum and burning it in 25 years, we're all dead anyway, right?

18:26 - So there's been this understanding that the resource scramble, the oil rush that was touted again back in 2007, 2012, is artificial. It's made up, but it'll never come to be. Furthermore, even if there wasn't the threat of greenhouse gases and just destroying our planet, it's also a fact that in the time, the last 10 years since that perception of a resource scramble, first burst on the scene, and today we've, we've seen a remarkable drop in the price

19:01 - of solar and wind power, remarkable progress in grid, in battery, in all kinds of storage and transmission of electricity, such that it's hard to imagine anyone ever needing that oil or gas in 25 years. In other words, the world is shifting away thanks to technological change, and thanks to the new economics of energy, we're shifting away from petroleum in any case. So the oil, gas, and coal that's under the ice, under the sea

19:31 - and the arctic will probably mostly remain there. And once we understand that, then we all step back and say, well then what is it we're fighting over? Right? Nobody needs anyone else's territory. Remember, the North Pole is a bunch of ice and water. There's no ground to grab up there. So if we don't want to take territory and, and we don't need the resources and they're too expensive and difficult to get anyway, and let's all step, take a step back, take a deep breath,

19:59 - and realize there's nothing much to fight over except what's happening in Ukraine, except what's happening in the Middle East. But that changes the picture dramatically when we realize that the Arctic itself is a zone of peace. The arctic itself itself has nothing worth fighting over and everything worth collaborating on. So my hope is that when the Ukraine war ends, and it must end, and it's a precondition for renewed cooperation,

20:29 - otherwise the hostility is just too high, even though it doesn't make sense, it's there. But when it does, I'm cautiously optimistic that there'll be a quick resumption of arctic cooperation and a catching up on so much research, so much collaboration, that we both need. Because if we don't prepare for the climate disaster, if we don't prepare for the environmental collapse that's coming and all the transnational effects, all the international spillover, then we will lose a war

21:05 - to enemy number one. It's not Russia, it's mother nature. The enemy, the common enemy that I'm talking about, the looming threat of environmental collapse that I say demands our cooperation. What is it? Am I being alarmist? I don't think so. And of course, this is the subject of this collaborative National Science Foundation project that I'm the principal investigator on investigating this sort of collision between the environment

21:33 - and geopolitics. I would point to three or four of the biggest threats to give you a concrete and tangible example. Number one is the thawing or the melting permafrost we've already seen. Not only does that cause a massive release of carbon dioxide and methane, right, which leads to this positive feedback loop of more warming, more melting, more warming.

22:01 - But it also is starting to have more immediate, tangible, destructive effects on arctic infrastructure. For example, in Russia, a massive tank of diesel fuel spilled into the tundra and flowed out into the arctic ocean because the ground underneath it collapsed. The permafrost melted. We have seen pipelines in Alaska, in Russia, in Canada, cracking and breaking because the soil underneath is heaving and buckling. We've seen roads break, we've seen bridges come down,

22:38 - and this is just the beginning. If the perms frost continues at this rate, the amount of infrastructure damage which spills over immediately into en environmental damage will be in the tens of billions annually to repair. And that's just in the next five, seven years. If we go out 15, 20 years, it grows by an order of magnitude. That's number one. number number two, wildfires for several years, we've watched sometimes with a kind

23:09 - of sense of Schaden Freud, unfortunately, as Siberia was plagued with months and months of uncontrollable wildfires in the Russian Arctic. And of course that's putting an enormous amount of carbon and soot in the atmosphere. It has direct public health impacts on local communities, and then it spreads all over the Arctic and into the atmosphere. Well, guess what? Last summer, it was Canada's turn

23:37 - massive wildfire, struck the boreal forest in Canada, and again, did tens of billions in damage. That damage consists of the cost of firefighting, which in many cases is futile. They can't be stopped, but at least we try to protect certain communities. Number two, the impact on the forestry industry is catastrophic. And then of course, tourism and other affiliated industries suffer as well.

24:03 - So again, tens of billions in damage were done just in Quebec province alone last summer, and there's no reason we won't see worse and worse wildfire seasons in everybody's arctic. It's drier, it's hotter. The fire season lasts longer. It's a problem that is spiraling out of control and will consume so much of our resources just to ameliorate these immediate impacts. It's hard to know where we would get the money for more icebreakers

24:33 - and missiles in the Arctic anyway, right? They're drawing at the same limited budgets. that's number two. What else? Number three, let's go out to the seas. Harmful algae blooms. We've all seen what happens when there's a red tide off of Florida, right? Or an algae bloom off of Cape Cod, massive die-offs of fish. And you probably know the cycle where the algae bloom. right? They block out the sunlight,

25:01 - eventually they create a dead zone fish or marine mammals are wiped out. There's no oxygen, right? and then there are all these toxins, these cytotoxins caused by the decomposition of the dead algae. Well, that problem, guess what is invading the arctic too? And we're seeing the microorganisms and the algae cysts that cause these blooms up north of the bearing strait for the first time.

25:28 - The likely impact on the native communities that rely on fishing and wailing, subsistence, wailing will be devastating. But don't forget, all of our North Atlantic species, haddock, cod, all kinds of crabs are all migrating north to find cold water, to find the right habitat, and they're already suffering from parasites, from collapse of their own food chain. You probably know that for several years running the king crab, snow crab, red crab harvest

26:01 - in Alaska have been canceled because the populations have fallen so low. Now imagine all of that repeated and magnified, not just for crustacean, but for fish, for marine mammals in the Arctic proper. you have, again, devastating impacts on commercial fishing as well as subsistence fishing. So there's three. What else I could go on? Let me just quickly mention the most mysterious of all,

26:27 - and that is disease outbreaks, right? Anthrax, long dormant viruses and bacteria that have been frozen in the permafrost. It's very likely we will see perhaps even malal outbreaks, right? As these swampy areas Warm. we don't know exactly what they'll be, but we can predict broad epidemic like outbreaks. And let me just close by saying like the wildfires,

26:54 - like the harmful algae blooms, like the permafrost, all of them will spill over international borders and do damage that we can only address jointly. So this is what's looming, and it could get enormously expensive, enormously dangerous, and it simply is impossible for us to address them unilaterally or nationally. This is why we need at some point, to resume rapidly and intensively. We need to resume collaboration with all

27:27 - of the Arctic states because it's going to get so bad. We can't imagine. And the kind of petty rivalries and the arctic agendas, the energy, the transport, the shipping, all of that will be pushed aside by one public emergency and one global disaster after another. We're not prepared, and I'm afraid, if we don't start preparing by cooperating when it comes, it'll be so much worse.

Faculti AI can make mistakes